南极变暖的速度是全球平均速度的3倍

南极变暖的速度是全球平均速度的3倍

The South Pole has been warming more than three times faster than the global average over the past 30 years, according to a new study.

根据一项新的研究，在过去的30年里，南极变暖的速度是全球平均速度的3倍多。

Researchers argue that it’s unlikely these warming trends are the result of natural climate change alone, suggesting that human-made climate change appears to have played a part. The study was published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

研究人员认为，这些变暖趋势不太可能仅仅是自然气候变化的结果，表明人为造成的气候变化似乎起了一定作用。这项研究发表在《自然气候变化》杂志上。

Researchers at the South Pole station in Antarctica.NOAA Photo Library [(CC BY 2.0)] / Flickr

The pole, the most isolated spot on Earth, is located deep in Antarctica. Average temperatures range from -60 degrees C (-76 F) during winter to -20 C (-4 F) in summer. Researchers found that between 1989 and 2018, the South Pole warmed by about 1.8 degrees C at a rate of about 0.6 degrees C per decade. That was three times the global average.

南极是地球上最孤立的地方，位于南极洲的深处。冬季平均气温为零下60摄氏度(零下76华氏度)，夏季为零下20摄氏度(零下4华氏度)。研究人员发现，在1989年至2018年间，南极温度上升了约1.8摄氏度，速度约为每十年0.6摄氏度。这是全球平均水平的三倍。

Researchers have been aware for years that coastal areas of Antarctica are warming and losing sea ice, but they had thought that the South Pole was isolated and protected from rising climate temperatures.

多年来，研究人员一直意识到南极洲沿海地区的海冰正在变暖和消失，但他们曾认为，南极是孤立的，受到了气候温度上升的保护。

"This highlights that global warming is global and it's making its way to these remote places," Kyle Clem, postdoctoral research fellow in Climate Science at the University of Wellington, and lead author of the study, told CNN.

“这凸显了全球变暖是全球性的，而且正在向这些偏远地区蔓延，”惠灵顿大学气候科学博士后研究员、该研究的主要作者凯尔·克莱姆告诉CNN。

For the study, Clem and his team analyzed weather data and used climate model simulations. They found that the main cause of the rising temperatures was changes in ocean surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific Ocean.

在这项研究中，克莱姆和他的团队分析了天气数据并使用了气候模型模拟。他们发现，温度上升的主要原因是热带太平洋西部海洋表面温度的变化。

"It is wild. It is the most remote place on the planet. The significance is how extreme temperatures swing and shift over the Antarctic interior, and the mechanisms that drive them are linked 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles) north of the continent on the tropical Pacific," Clem said.

“这是野生的。它是地球上最偏远的地方。它的意义在于极端温度是如何在南极内部摆动和转移的，以及驱动这种变化的机制与南极大陆北部10000公里(6200英里)的热带太平洋有关，”克莱姆说。

Blaming Climate Change

归咎于气候变化

In the early decades after 1957, when measurements were first recorded at the South Pole, average temperatures remained steady or declined. Near the end of the 20th century, temperatures began to rise.

在1957年之后的最初几十年里，南极的平均气温保持稳定或下降。20世纪末，气温开始上升。

In their models, the researchers compared the recent warming rate to all possible 30-year temperature trends that could happen naturally without human influence. They found that the 1.8 degrees of warming was higher than 99.9% of all possible trends without human influence — meaning the recent warming is “extremely unlikely under natural conditions, albeit not impossible,” Clem says.

在他们的模型中，研究人员比较了最近的变暖速度和所有可能在没有人类影响的情况下自然发生的30年温度趋势。他们发现1.8度的变暖比没有人类影响的所有可能趋势的99.9%都要高——这意味着最近的变暖“在自然条件下极其不可能，尽管不是不可能，”克莱姆说。

“The temperature variability at the South Pole is so extreme it currently masks human-caused effects,” Clem writes in The Guardian. “The Antarctic interior is one of the few places left on Earth where human-caused warming cannot be precisely determined, which means it is a challenge to say whether, or for how long, the warming will continue.”

克莱姆在《卫报》上写道:“南极的温度变化如此极端，以至于现在掩盖了人类造成的影响。”“南极内陆地区是地球上为数不多的几个无法精确确定人为原因造成气候变暖的地区之一，这意味着要确定气候变暖是否会持续，或将持续多久，是一个挑战。”