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FT社评:伊朗政府应倾听国内抗议者的声音

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2018年01月13日

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In 2017 liberal democracies came under pressure from inside and out. The new year opened with a reminder that autocracies can be brittle, too.

2017年,自由民主国家遭受了来自国内外的压力。新年伊始,人们意识到:专制政体可能也是脆弱的。

The street protests that have swept across much of Iran in recent days have gathered momentum in a way that is virtually unprecedented in the nearly four decades since the revolution that deposed the shah. The ensuing crackdown will probably work. But Iran’s leadership should heed the warning signs. Iranians are tiring of a regime that squanders resources on foreign adventures, instead of devoting them to development at home.

近几日,席卷伊朗大部分地区的街头抗议活动愈演愈烈,其势头之猛是自伊斯兰革命起的将近40年来几乎未曾见过的(伊斯兰革命推翻了伊朗的沙阿)。之后的镇压很可能会奏效。但伊朗领导层应该注意其中的警示。伊朗人已经厌倦了一个把资源挥霍在海外冒险行为、而非投入到国内发展中的政权。

Popular frustration has been fuelled at least partly by unmet expectations. The re-elected centrist president Hassan Rouhani’s tentative rapprochement with the west held out the promise of an opening. Underpinned by the 2015 agreement to freeze some nuclear activities in return for the lifting of sanctions, the deal raised hopes among Iranians of re-engagement with the world and re-entry into global markets. But it has both whetted Iranian appetite for more change and failed to deliver in a practical sense.

民众的不满至少在一定程度上是因为期望未得到满足而引发的。再次当选的中间派总统哈桑•鲁哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)与西方达成暂时和解,带来了开放的希望。2015年达成的冻结部分核活动以换取解除制裁的协议,带给伊朗人重新接触世界、重新进入全球市场的希望。但这既刺激了伊朗人对更多改变的渴望,又未能在实际层面上带来改变。

Inflation has fallen, the economy is growing after years of recession and Iran’s crude oil is being sold overseas again. But the flow of investment and jobs has been stymied by the imposition by Washington of aggressive new non-nuclear sanctions, and uncertainty over US commitment to the nuclear deal. Banks and investors have also been scared off by the extent to which state entities such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are enmeshed in the economy.

通胀下降,经济在多年的衰退后恢复增长,伊朗的原油再次销往海外。但美国实施的与核活动无关的强硬的新制裁措施,以及美国在遵守核协议问题上的不确定性,阻碍了投资和就业。银行和投资者也被伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)等国家机构深入参与经济吓退。

The protests are partly representative of the power struggle that is going on inside the regime. On one side there are those who believe that the survival of the Islamic Republic depends on maintaining an iron fist, and who fear economic change will lead ultimately to regime change. On the other side are those who argue that opening up and reforming the system is key to preserving it longer term.

抗议活动在一定程度上体现了政权内部的权力斗争。一派人认为,这个伊斯兰共和国的生存有赖于继续实行铁腕统治,并担心经济变革最终会导致政权更迭。另一派人认为,开放和体制改革是维持国家长治久安的关键。

The hardliners appear rashly to have had a hand in stirring up this week’s trouble, taking advantage of discontent at rising prices, and stagnant living standards, in a bid to discredit President Rouhani. The reforms he promises are threatening to the theocrats, and their revolutionary guard enforcers, whose power, privileges and sprawl of business interests depend on the corruption of a closed system.

强硬派似乎贸然挑起了本周的骚乱,他们利用民众对物价上涨和生活水平长期得不到改善的不满,意图削弱鲁哈尼总统的声望。鲁哈尼承诺进行的改革威胁到了神权以及他们的执行者革命卫队,后者的权力、特权及庞大的商业利益都取决于一个封闭体制的腐败。

These actors are playing with fire. It is easy to start a protest. It is not always easy to control the outcome, especially when dealing with a clued-up, social media savvy young population exasperated by the status quo.

这些人正在玩火。抗议很容易煽动起来,但要控制后果并不容易,尤其是在应对不满现状、博学多闻又精通社交媒体的年轻一代方面。

Mr Rouhani is caught in the middle, undermined at once by hawks in his own regime and a hawkish administration in Washington. The US president, Donald Trump, who has made no secret of his enmity for Iran, has tweeted his support for the protesters. Some Israeli politicians have also expressed support. That was unwise. Meddling by outsiders provides the hardliners with the perfect alibi for a crackdown, which can only undermine Mr Rouhani further.

鲁哈尼受到自己政权中的鹰派和华盛顿鹰派政府的左右夹击。美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)毫不掩饰对伊朗的敌意,发推文支持伊朗抗议者。一些以色列政治家也表达了支持。这么做并不明智。外界的干预为强硬派提供了镇压抗议的最佳借口,这只会进一步削弱鲁哈尼。

Within the current system he still represents the best hope of change. But the strength of this outpouring of rage should provide a signal that his government must be more responsive to the legitimate grievances of the population. Iranians are demanding results.

在伊朗目前的体制内,鲁哈尼仍是变革的最大希望。但民众如此强烈地发泄愤怒应该释放出一种信号,即鲁哈尼政府必须更好地回应民众合理的不满情绪。伊朗人民要求看到切实的结果。

The EU should not be swayed by US belligerence. Squeezing the regime further, as many in Washington would like to do, is not the answer. It would be wiser to remain engaged and encourage incremental change.

欧盟(EU)不应被美国的强硬姿态所左右。进一步对伊朗政权施压——此乃华盛顿许多人所希望的那样——并不能解决问题。更明智的做法是继续接触,并鼓励伊朗实行渐进式变革。
 


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