中国数据造假掩盖了经济复苏

China’s carbon emissions are rising, foreign executives report they are seeing strong growth and luxury cars form long lines outside top hotels in cities where coal is king.

中国的碳排放量正在上升，外国高管报告业绩增长势头强劲，而在以煤炭为主导产业的城市，顶级酒店外面停满了豪华轿车。

But the country’s economic growth for 2017, due for release on Thursday, is unlikely to reflect the revival because previous data never revealed the true extent of the downturn.

但中国将于本周四发布的经济增长数据不太可能如实反映经济的复苏，因为之前的数据从未揭示出真正的经济放缓程度。

China’s gross domestic product grew 6.9 per cent last year, Premier Li Keqiang told a regional meeting in Cambodia last week. “The overall situation was better than expected,” he said.

中国总理李克强上周在柬埔寨举行的地区会议上表示，去年中国国内生产总值(GDP)预计增长6.9%。他说：“整体形势好于预期。”

Mr Li’s estimate is higher than the 6.7 per cent growth reported for 2016 but the real recovery has been sharper. Corporate results are rosy, commodity imports are hitting new records and producer prices have shifted back to steady gains, signifying better industrial health.

李克强估计的这个数字高于2016年6.7%的增长率数据，但真实的复苏程度更为强劲。公司业绩良好，大宗商品进口创出历史新高，生产者价格恢复稳定上升，这些表明工业状况变得更为健康。

So why won’t China’s 2017 GDP data reflect the good news?

那么中国2017年的GDP数据为何不会反映这些好消息呢?

China’s national statisticians regularly discount local data to correct for local officials’ habit of inflating figures to look good. This “smoothing” masks fluctuations in China’s economic cycles and reduces the utility of publishing statistics in the first place.

中国国家统计人员经常将地方数据打折，以纠正地方官员美化夸大数字的习惯。这种“平滑”掩盖了中国经济周期的波动，从一开始就降低了发布的统计数据的实用性。

“We already have so much better quality data for 2017 that the official GDP growth rate, which I expect will be close to the 2016 pace, will not be valuable to investors when it is published next week,” said Andy Rothman, economist at Matthews Asia.

铭基亚洲(Matthews Asia)的经济学家罗福万(Andy Rothman)表示：“我们已经获得了2017年的一些更优质的数据，因此即将公布的GDP增长率——我预计与2016年的增长率相当——对投资者没有什么价值。”

The main factor masking the recovery is a slump in northern China from 2012 to 2016 that was never fully recognised. Three regions admit to faking some statistics in 2016 but FT analysis suggests the impact was deeper and longer than a single year of faked data would suggest.

掩盖经济复苏的主要因素是2012年至2016年中国北方地区经济的大幅放缓未在经济数据中完全体现出来。有三个地区承认2016年一些统计数据注水，但英国《金融时报》的分析表明，一年伪造数据远远达不到这么深远的影响。

That matters, because China is on course to become the world’s largest economy by any measure. If the country’s data are skewed, so are the responses by governments, companies and institutions the world over.

这很重要，因为不管以哪种标准衡量，中国都即将成为世界上最大的经济体，如果这个国家的数据出现扭曲，那么世界各国政府、企业和机构的反应同样会出现偏差。

For example, global climate change negotiators saw hope in flat global emissions from 2014 to 2016, when world growth appeared to be humming along thanks to reported GDP expansion in China. In 2017, when other indicators showed the real Chinese economy had improved, emissions began climbing again.

例如，全球气候变化谈判人员从2014年至2016年全球排放量持平中看到了希望，那几年得益于中国公布的GDP增长数据，全球经济似乎仍在继续增长。2017年，当其他指标显示中国实体经济改善时，中国的排放量又开始回升。

For policymakers and observers worldwide, there is a big difference between believing an emissions slowdown is due to better policies or reflecting an economic slowdown in the smoke-belching northern half of the world’s largest carbon emitter.

对世界各地的政策制定者和观察人士来说，相信排放放缓是更好的政策造成的，还是世界上最大碳排放国的北部重污染地区经济放缓造成的，两者有着重要的区别。

Inner Mongolia, one of China’s most coal-dependent areas, and the major northern port city of Tianjin, have admitted to falsifying data that will probably require their 2016 GDP to be revised down. They join neighbouring Liaoning, the first province to admit to a contraction during the four-year correction in commodities markets.

中国最依赖煤炭的地区之一内蒙古和中国北方主要港口城市天津均承认数据造假，这导致它们可能需要向下修正2016年的GDP数据。此前相邻的辽宁省已率先承认在大宗商品市场为期4年的调整期间其经济出现了收缩。

This map of China shows the northern half of the country’s dependence on metals and mining (including crude oil and coal production). China stopped publishing the share of these industries in nominal GDP in 2012, the same year the commodity cycle turned sour.

这张中国地图显示了中国北方地区对金属和采矿工业(包括原油和煤炭生产)的依赖。从2012年开始，中国不再公布这些产业在名义GDP中的占比，同年大宗商品周期由盛转衰。

Inner Mongolia admitted this month that its data for “added value of industrial enterprises of a certain scale” were inflated 40 per cent in 2016. According to the Chinese statistical yearbook, secondary industry comprises 47 per cent of its GDP. Assuming its 2015 figures are accurate, the revised 2016 figures mean the region’s economy shrank 13 per cent. If that sounds implausible, consider the likelihood that 2015 figures were also incorrect.

本月内蒙古承认其2016年“规模以上工业增加值”虚增了40%。根据中国统计年鉴，第二产业占该地区GDP的比例为47%。假设其2015年的数据是准确的，2016年数据下修就意味着当年内蒙古经济收缩了13%。如果这听起来不太可信，那么就应该考虑内蒙古2015年数据也不准确的可能性。

Below is a chart showing the declared GDP growth of Inner Mongolia since 2011, and the contraction of 2016, assuming no other revisions.

下图显示了内蒙古自2011年以来所公布的GDP增长率数据，以及不修正其他年份数据的情况下2016年的经济收缩情况。

For a clearer picture of the slump in the underlying commodities that affected the real economies of northern China, here are benchmark oil, coal and steel prices in China since 2010.

为了更清晰地把握影响中国北方地区实体经济的基础大宗商品下滑情况，下图显示了在中国基准原油、煤炭和钢铁价格自2010年以来的走势。

Like Inner Mongolia, Liaoning admitted to a contraction in 2016 compared with its official performance in 2015. But in 2016, its economy should have been recovering.

和内蒙古一样，辽宁也承认，与其2015年的官方数据相比，2016年GDP出现了收缩。但在2016年，辽宁的经济应该是在复苏的。

Liaoning admits it faked data for about five years but has not issued a revised series. It is the most economically diverse of the northern provinces, so whatever it suffered should have been worse in neighbouring regions such as Inner Mongolia.

辽宁承认在大概5年时间里虚报数据，但是并未公布修正后的相关数据。辽宁是中国北方经济最多元化的省份，因此无论辽宁问题多么严重，内蒙古等邻近地区的问题应该会更加严重。

Tianjin, one of the big ports that services northern China, could also see a revision. Its Binhai financial district, which offers tax and foreign exchange incentives to registered businesses, swelled to comprise roughly half of Tianjin’s reported GDP last year.

作为服务中国北方地区的大型港口城市之一，天津可能也会修正数据。去年，天津滨海新区——为注册企业提供税收减免和更宽松的外汇机制等激励措施——对天津官方GDP数据的贡献扩大至一半以上。

Binhai included in GDP the commercial activity of companies that were only registered there for tax purposes, according to revelations last week. That could result in a 20 per cent drop in reported GDP for Tianjin in 2017, according to FT calculations. Binhai’s high debt levels and access to domestic and international financing make its phantom results a concern for broader markets.

据上周披露的信息显示，滨海新区在GDP统计中加入了那些为享受税收优惠而仅仅把公司注册在该区的企业的商业活动。据英国《金融时报》估算，这可能导致天津公布的2017年GDP数据减少20%。滨海的高债务水平，加上它为企业打通国内和国际融资的渠道，致使其假数据在更广泛市场引发了担忧。

Another possible data offender is Shanxi, China’s most coal-dependent province. Its official GDP growth held up admirably during the commodities downturn.

另一个可能伪造数据的省份是山西——中国最依赖煤炭的省份。在大宗商品低迷期，山西的官方GDP增长坚挺得令人羡慕。

Last summer China’s anti-corruption watchdog announced unspecified problems with Jilin’s data, adding another troubled northeastern province to the list of candidates to watch. Jilin depends on grains more than coal mining, so we have not included its chart here.

去年夏天中国的反腐监督部门宣布吉林的数据存在问题，但并未明确说明是什么问题，意味着又一个经济困顿的东北省份进入了观察名单。相比采矿，吉林更依赖于粮食生产，因此我们没有专门绘图展示该省的情况。