标普：中国地方政府债务可能达40万亿元

"Hidden" local government debt in China is projected to have hit as much as Rmb40tn ($6tn), or 60 per cent of China’s gross domestic product in 2017, an alarmingly high rate as the country’s economy cools and manufacturing starts to suffer from China’s trade dispute with the US.

预计2017年中国“隐性”地方政府债务高达40万亿元人民币(合6万亿美元)，相当于中国国内生产总值(GDP)的60%，这一比例高得惊人。这正值中国经济降温，制造业开始受到中美贸易争端冲击。

While the exact number is not known because much of the debt is not held on balance sheet, a report from S&P Global estimated that local government financing vehicles, or LGFVs, have racked up between Rmb30tn and Rmb40tn ($4.5tn and $6tn).

虽然确切数字未知，因为大部分债务不在资产负债表上，但标普全球(S&P Global)的一份报告估计，中国地方政府融资平台(LGFV)已积累了30万亿至40万亿元人民币(合4.5万亿至6万亿美元)的债务。

“And that’s a debt iceberg with titanic credit risks,” the report states.

该报告称：“这是一座蕴含巨大信用风险的债务冰山。”

For many years, local governments in China were not allowed to raise debt in capital markets and therefore resorted to creating separate vehicles in order to finance infrastructure projects, a key driver of local economic growth.

多年来，中国地方政府一直未获准在资本市场上发债，因此，为了向基础设施项目提供融资，它们不得不创建了另外的融资工具。基础设施项目是推动中国经济增长的一个关键因素。

While local governments have more recently been allowed to issue bonds, and Beijing has sought to crack down on off-balance-sheet financing for local governments, LGFVs have remained active. Local governments have used public-private partnerships and investment funds to finance many of their infrastructure projects in recent years, according to the S&P report.

虽然地方政府最近才获准发行债券，而且中央政府试图打击地方政府的表外融资，但地方政府融资平台仍很活跃。上述标普报告显示，近年来，地方政府利用政府和社会资本合作(PPP)和投资基金为许多基础设施项目提供融资。

“This was just another way to ratchet up the amount of hidden government debt for many projects,” the report says.

报告称：“这只是增加许多项目的隐性政府债务的另一种方式。”

The result of the high level of debt, according to the report, could be defaults at local governments - particularly at "weaker prefectural city-level or district-level governments" - as China’s economy cools off.

报告称，随着中国经济降温，高水平债务的结果可能是地方政府违约——尤其是在“实力较弱的地市级或区级政府”。

China’s economic growth is expected to decelerate in the coming years. GDP is expected to grow 6.6 per cent in the third quarter of the year, a slight decline compared to the previous quarter. At The government is also pushing through rigorous banking reforms that have tightened the access to credit through off-balance-sheet channels.

预计中国经济增长将在未来几年放缓。今年中国第三季度GDP预计将增长6.6%，较上一季度略有下降。中国政府还在推行严格的银行业改革，收紧了通过表外渠道获得信贷的渠道。

At the same time, a fierce trade war that has broken out between the US and China is expected to dent economic output in the coming months.

与此同时，中美之间爆发的一场激烈贸易战，预计将在未来几个月内削弱中国的经济产出。