科普时间：中国资本外流究竟是什么？

轻松有趣的手绘漫画为你勾勒出答案：大家都在讨论的中国资本外流究竟是什么？到底有多少钱正大举流出中国？中国采取了哪些类似“治水”的政策来堵住这些洞口？

小编听译的本视频全部中英文文本在这里，供大家参考。

China's rulers are used to battling great tides of liquidity that threaten to wash their authority away.So much so that the country's earliest political stars were those who managed to tame the floods unleashed by the fearsome Yellow River.

中国的统治者曾长期与凶猛的洪水做抗争，以防威胁到他们的权威统治。以至于，中国最早的一批政治明星，都是那些成功治理了黄河大泛滥的人才。

Even today, the character for political control shows the sign for water in the form of three drops next to the sign for a platform or a river dyke.

即便在今天，汉字政治管治里的“治”字也是由三点水加上寓意堤坝的台字构成。

Now though, China is facing a different sort of liquidity challenge.Torrents of money are flooding out of the country to find safer havens abroad.Some of this money is in flight from an anti-corruption crackdown, but most of it comes from investors trying to get more bang for their buck overseas than they would inside China.

不过，今天中国则面临着另一种流动性威胁：海量资金正要大举涌出该国，向海外寻求更为安全的避风港。其中一些资金是为了躲避反腐行动，但大部分资金是来自国内的投资者，他们希望通过海外投资获得更大收益，而不仅仅只在中国境内。

Goldman Sachs estimates that in a single year, people or companies took or smuggled out of the country as much as 1.1 trillion U.S.dollars.That is quite a chunk of cash.

据高盛估算，仅仅在一个年度内，个人或公司携带或走私出境的钱，就达到了1.1万亿美元。那可真的是一大笔钱。

To put it into context, 1.1 trillion dollars would buy a fairly reasonable car for about 100 million Chinese families, or pay all of the yearly wages for about 122 million Chinese factory workers, or buy you about half of everything that China exported to the world last year - an awful lot of stuff.

如果把它放在一个情境下来描述的话，1.1万亿美元可以为1亿中国家庭每家买一辆相当不错的汽车，或者为1.22亿中国工人支付一整年的工资，或者买下去年中国对外出口货物的一半——可以买下的东西数量十分惊人。

For a developing country like China, therefore, hemorrhaging that amount of money is really painful.

然而，对于像中国这样一个发展中国家来说，流失这么一大笔钱，真的很痛。

This outward gush also depresses the value of the Chinese currency, the Renminbi, against the mighty US dollar.And this has aroused the ire of none other than Donald Trump, who has threatened to brand China a currency manipulator and imposed stiff tariffs on Chinese exports to America.So what is Beijing doing about it?

如此规模的资本外流还将压低中国货币的价值，导致人民币对强势美元的贬值。而这又将直接激怒特朗普，他威胁称要将中国纳入汇率操纵国，还将对中国出口到美国的商品征收高额关税。那么，北京方面迄今为止是如何回应的呢？

图中特朗普为中国烙上汇率操纵国CM（currency manipulator）的烙印。

Interestingly, its reaction seems to draw more from the flood control techniques of 5,000 years ago than it does from modern economic theory.

有趣的是，中国的反应更多像是来自五千年前的治洪术，而不是来自现代经济学理论。

First up, they are plugging the holes in the dyke through which Chinese money is flowing abroad.The government is scrutinising and in some cases and blocking any overseas investment by a company worth more than 5 million dollars.This vigilance has contributed to a collapse in the number of overseas deals by Chinese bidders recently.Foreign companies operating in China are also finding it increasingly tricky to send their profits home.

第一步，他们先是堵住堤坝上的漏洞——国内的资金就是通过这些漏洞流向海外。中国政府开始仔细检查对外投资，在有些案例中，价值500万美元以上的公司海外投资甚至被禁止。这样的警戒措施客观上导致近期中国出价者发起的海外交易数量大幅减少，在华经营的外资公司也发现，要把利润汇出到本国更具挑战了。

The second strategy in liquidity management is to divert the flow.This is an enduring ploy.Even in modern times, when a river looks like it's going to burst its banks and engulf a big city, the authorities will intentionally breach the dykes in a more rural area upstream, so that that area gets flooded instead.The monetary equivalent of this has been playing out in the country's short-term money markets.Authorities have intervened to raise domestic interest rates there by enticing more investors to keep their money inside China.

中国治水的第二个策略是分流。这将会是长久之策，因为就算是现代社会，一条河流看起来马上就要决堤并吞没大城市时，政府都会刻意在堤坝上开个口子，把水引向上游的村落地区。这样那个村落地区就会代替大城市被淹没。在货币政策上，类似的做法就用在了中国的短期货币市场。政府介入以提高国内利率，诱使更多的投资者把钱留在中国境内。

Of course, there is collateral damage, just as there is when a rural area gets inundated through an intentional breach of a river's bank.In this case, the losers are those Chinese companies that finance themselves by issuing debt in the money markets.They are having to pay more and some are heading towards default.With so much debt around, a default Domino where one leads to another is a serious risk.

当然，这样做也有一些附带损害，就像那个故事里，村落地区因人为制造的决堤而受损，如果这样的话，其中赔本的就会是那些在货币市场上发债融资的中国公司自己。他们将会被迫支付更高的利息，一些人会走向违约。随着大量此类的债务累积起来，违约游戏的多米诺骨牌就会一个接一个倒下，这将是一个重大风险。

But all Chinese know that floods create losers, that is why the Yellow River is known as China's sorrow.Beijing's calculation is that it needs to inflict some pain to ease the torrent of capital outflows that threaten to sink the Renminbi and exacerbate tensions with Donald Trump.

不过，所有的中国人都知道，洪水会制造失败者。也正因此，黄河又被称为中国之殇。北京方面打的算盘是，它必须遭受一些痛苦，以缓解大量的资本外流。因为这可以减缓人民币市值不稳定的威胁，同时也不至于进一步加剧与特朗普的紧张关系。

词汇总结

so much so that 到这样的程度以至于

tame[teɪm]

v.驯服 adj.驯服的，顺从的

fearsome['fɪəs（ə）m]

adj.可怕的，极大的

China's rulers are used to battling great tides of liquidity that threaten to wash their authority away.So much so that the country's earliest political stars were those who managed to tame the floods unleashed by the fearsome Yellow River.

中国的统治者曾长期与凶猛的洪水做抗争，以防威胁到他们的权威统治。以至于，中国最早的一批政治明星，都是那些成功治理了黄河大泛滥的人才。

dyke[daɪk]

n.堤坝，壕沟 （美语写作dike）

Even today, the character for political control shows the sign for water in the form of three drops next to the sign for a platform or a river dyke.

即便在今天，汉字政治管治里的“治”字也是由三点水加上寓意堤坝的台字构成。

in flight from 逃避

more bang for the buck （习惯用语）获取更多收益或价值

Some of this money is in flight from an anti-corruption crackdown, but most of it comes from investors trying to get more bang for their buck overseas than they would inside China.

其中一些资金是为了躲避反腐行动，但大部分资金是来自国内的投资者，他们希望通过海外投资获得更大收益，而不仅仅只在中国境内。

smuggle['smʌg（ə）l]

v.走私，偷运

Goldman Sachs estimates that in a single year, people or companies took or smuggled out of the country as much as 1.1 trillion U.S.dollars.That is quite a chunk of cash.

据高盛估算，仅仅在一个年度内，个人或公司携带或走私出境的钱，就达到了1.1万亿美元。那可真的是一大笔钱。

hemorrhaging['hemərɪdʒɪŋ]

v.出血，流血；损失（hemorrhage的ing形式）

For a developing country like China, therefore, hemorrhaging that amount of money is really painful.

然而，对于像中国这样一个发展中国家来说，流失这么一大笔钱，真的很痛。

collateral damage 附带损害

Of course, there is collateral damage, just as there is when a rural area gets inundated through an intentional breach of a river's bank.

当然，这样做也有一些附带损害，就像那个故事里，村落地区因人为制造的决堤而受损。

inflict some pain to ease… 遭受一些痛苦，以缓解……

exacerbate[ɪg'zæsəbeɪt; ek'sæs-]

v.使加剧；使恶化

Beijing's calculation is that it needs to inflict some pain to ease the torrent of capital outflows that threaten to sink the Renminbi and exacerbate tensions with Donald Trump.

北京方面打的算盘是，它必须遭受一些痛苦，以缓解大量的资本外流。因为这可以减缓人民币市值不稳定的威胁，同时也不至于进一步加剧与特朗普的紧张关系。