特朗普盯上美国汽车业，悄然举起大棒

面对特朗普征收高额关税的威胁，美国汽车制造商纷纷表示将减少在墨西哥的投资，把工作岗位送回美国。它们真会如此妥协吗？

以下为本视频中英文文本。

It's the best of times and the worst of times.

这是最好的时代，也是最坏的时代。

In the U.S.auto industry, sales are at an all-time high, but so is nervousness over what president-elect Donald Trump may do to punish carmakers for trying to make cars cheaply in Mexico and sell them in the United States.

美国汽车制造业眼下就是如此。汽车销售前所未有的强劲，但车企的紧张情绪也达到了顶点，因为当选总统特朗普威胁要惩罚这个行业，指责他们在墨西哥便宜地造车，然后卖回给美国人。

Here at the Detroit Auto Show, car makers are tiptoeing through a minefield.No one wants to say anything that will set off yet another tweet storm from Mr.Trump, who has threatened one carmaker after another with punitive tariffs on cars made in Mexico and imported to the US.

在底特律车展上，参展商都在小心翼翼地绕过雷区，没人敢多说一句，生怕会触发特朗普又一场“推文风暴”。特朗普已经威胁了一家又一家美国车企，要向它们在墨西哥生产、再出口至美国的车征收惩罚性关税。

Some like Ford have already caved in to the pressure and cancelled Mexican factories.Others are rushing to repackage old investment as new U.S.expenditure, anything to shield themselves from that tweet that torpedoes their share price.

一些车企已经在压力下妥协，例如福特已经取消了在墨西哥建立工厂的计划。其它车企急急忙忙把过去的投资计划重新打包成在美国的支出项目。大家使出浑身解数，只为了让特朗普不再发推特，打击它们的股价。

行业分析师Michelle Krebs：

Automakers are on pins and needles because this industry really doesn't like uncertainty, especially in an industry where you have to plan your products 4 years 8 years from now.It's already hard enough to figure out what consumers want, then add a layer of politics and it is challenging.

美国汽车制造业现在胆战心惊，这个行业憎恨不确定性。尤其是因为，它需要在四年前、八年前就制定造车计划。要搞清楚消费者的口味已经够难了，现在还要增加上政治因素——这太具有挑战性了。

If President Trump does put in tariffs which is going to be quite difficult to do, we could see the cost of vehicles go up because a lot of parts come across the border, a car company might decide, I'm not going to sell that vehicle that I make in Mexico in the U.S., eliminating a choice for a consumer.

如果特朗普总统真的要施加惩罚性关税——当然这比较难以施行——汽车价格将会上涨。因为很多汽车零配件是在海外生产的。车企可能会决定不再把墨西哥制造的汽车卖回美国，这会减少美国消费者的选择。

Fiat-Chrysler found a clever way to preempt a Trump tweet attack.On the eve of the Auto Show here in Detroit, a city whose fortunes rise and fall with those of the car industry, Fiat-Chrysler announced 1 billion dollars in new investment and 2,000 new U.S.jobs, cleverly timed to placate Mr.Trump.The president-elect responded with a celebratory tweet.But CEO Sergio Marchionne says the industry still needs much more clarity.

菲亚特-克莱斯勒找到了一个聪明的办法来躲避特朗普的“推文风暴”。就在底特律车展的前夜，这座城市的命运起伏都和汽车业休戚相关，菲亚特-克莱斯勒宣布将在美国投资10亿美元建厂，新增2000个工作岗位。这家公司掐准时间公布这一计划，以博得特朗普欢心。这位当选总统果然发了一条赞赏口吻的帖子以示回应。但菲亚特-克莱斯勒CEO Sergio Marconi仍然表示，汽车业需要更多政策确定性。

美国总统特朗普于2017年1月会见了菲亚特-克莱斯勒CEO Sergio Marchionne（右二）等人。

菲亚特-克莱斯勒CEO Sergio Marchionne：

I think it would be unwise that tariffs would be imposed on Mexico production without two things.One, without a very clear recognition of a grandfathering system that says anything that has been invested before this next date needs to be protected, because the downside of that choice is a substantial economic damage to the organizations that have done investments there.

如果缺少以下两个前提的话，向墨西哥生产的汽车征收关税将会是不明智的。第一是要明确一个日期，在此日期之前在墨西哥所做的投资应当受到保护，否则对在墨西哥投资建厂的企业来说，这个决定意味着巨大的经济损失。

The other one, as a minimum, is a phase-out program where effectively you introduce tariffs over a period of time to disincentivize Mexican production.But both of these things require a runway that's long enough to allow for the reversal of the delocalization exercise to be carried out.You don't impose them overnight.

第二是起码要设置一个过渡期，就是说在一个时间段里逐渐加征关税，好让车企逐渐减少在墨西哥的投资兴趣。这两样事情都需要足够长的时间，来让造车厂重新回到美国本土。这不是一夜之间就能发生的事情。

But privately, many of the world's biggest carmakers seem to be adjusting to the new normal, a world where years of investment planning can be undone by a sudden tweet.They are persuading themselves that no matter what Mr.Trump does, his promised act swiftly to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and impose tariffs on Mexican production, they will still be able to adjust to it.

但私底下，许多大型汽车制造商都已经开始努力适应一种“新常态”。这种“新常态”下，他们多年的投资计划可能因为一条推文就统统作废。他们说服自己，无论特朗普做什么——比如他许诺的重新协商北美自由贸易协定，再比如他要向墨西哥产汽车增加关税——他们都有能力一一应对。

雷诺-日产-三菱CEO Carlos Ghosn

雷诺-日产-三菱CEO Carlos Ghosn认为：

For the moment I think the only thing we can do is wait to see what are going to be these policies, what are going to be the decisions and in function of this adapt our strategy if necessary.I don't think there is a reason...（There is） No reason to adjust anything for the moment.

眼下我们唯一能做的事情就是等待，看看政策到底会是什么样的，然后如果需要的话调整我们的策略来应对。我认为目前还不需要做出什么调整。

Carmakers understand that the new president has a political base to satisfy, a base that wants more American jobs.And they are rapidly thinking of ways to help him reach that goal.

汽车制造商们明白，新任总统需要让选民们满意，而选民希望看见美国提供更多的工作岗位。他们也在迅速行动，来帮助他达到这个目标。

For the world's automakers, politics is always a factor, no matter where they do business.And they're ready to do what they can to help Mr.Trump satisfy his voters, many of whom are their own auto workers.

对全球的汽车制造商而言，政治永远是一个影响因素。不论他们在哪里做生意，他们准备各尽所能，来帮助特朗普迎合他的选民。而这些选民中，很多就是他们旗下车厂的工人。

福特汽车工人、特朗普支持者Brian Pannebecker：

Even though the labor costs might be slightly higher, businesses are going to see a savings in the reduced corporate tax rate and the reduction in regulations.It's going to allow a lower-cost product and I think it's going to balance out.So I think all in all it's going to be great, everything Donald Trump has suggested and intends to do is going to be positive for the auto industry and manufacturing industry in general.

虽然美国的劳动力成本稍稍高一些，但车厂在这里可以享受更低的企业税和更宽松的监管。这可以帮助它们节省成本，抵消劳动成本的增加。所以整体而言，效果会非常好。特朗普想做的一切都将有利于美国汽车业，也会有利于美国制造业整体。

These are the people who helped put Mr.Trump in office against all the odds and they're counting on him to make the American auto industry great again.The world's carmakers won't want to get on the wrong side of America's new president on this one.

正是这样一些选民打破各种政治预期，将特朗普送入白宫。他们也指望他来让美国汽车业重振雄风。全世界的汽车制造商都不希望在这件事上站在这位美国新任总统的对立面上。

词汇总结

tiptoe['tɪptəʊ]

v.踮着脚尖走

Here at the Detroit Auto Show, car makers are tiptoeing through a minefield.

在底特律车展上，参展商都在小心翼翼地绕过雷区。

caved in to 妥协于，屈服于

Some like Ford have already caved in to the pressure and cancelled Mexican factories.

一些车企已经在压力下妥协，例如福特已经取消了在墨西哥建立工厂的计划。

torpedo[tɔː'piːdəʊ]

v.破坏

n.鱼雷

These attacks are seen as an effort to torpedo the talks.

人们认为这些袭击是为了故意破坏会谈。

on pins and needles 胆战心惊，坐立不安，如坐针毡

Many famous actors are on pins and needles before the curtain opens for a play.

在帷幕拉开前，许多著名的演员感到坐立不安。

placate['pleket]

v.安抚，抚慰，使平静

He smiled, trying to placate me.

他微笑着，想要安抚我。

phase-out 过渡期，逐步淘汰计划

The other one, as a minimum, is a phase-out program where effectively you introduce tariffs over a period of time to disincentivize Mexican production.

第二是起码要设置一个过渡期，就是说在一个时间段里逐渐加征关税，好让车企逐渐减少在墨西哥的投资兴趣。

balance out 相抵，平衡；抵消

Outgoings and revenues balanced out.

收支相抵。

count on 指望，期待

The government thought it could count on the support of the trades unions.

政府认为可以指望获得工会的支持。