游客激增的冰岛：边发财，边发愁

03 游客激增的冰岛：边发财，边发愁

面对蓬勃发展的旅游业和复苏的经济，冰岛人民却喜忧参半。

冰岛旅游近些年来成为热门，观鲸鱼、泡温泉、探秘蓝冰洞、仰望北极光：这些听起来就令人心驰神往。

数据显示，在经历了2008年的金融危机和“国家破产”后，冰岛的经济正飞速走向恢复——这很大程度依托了蓬勃发展的旅游业。

然而，面对游客数的激增和旅游业带来的兴旺，冰岛人却未雨绸缪起来——

他们感到，这一切，都太像金融危机爆发前的景象了。

政府官员、经济学家、景区主管、酒店经理，他们各执一词。如果你也想要去冰岛，那么了解一下这个国家旅游业的现状，或许会对这一趟旅行有新的启发。

冰岛著名景观“盖锡尔间隙喷泉”

The geyser spurts scalding hot water heavenwards to mass applause and “oohs” every few minutes.A little distance away — over a single-track bridge — visitors gasp at waterfalls “a bit like Niagara but without the hotels”, as one American describes it.

每隔几分钟，伴随着人群的掌声和惊呼，滚烫的泉水就会朝着天空喷涌而出。在不远处，单行桥的另一边，游客们屏息凝神地欣赏瀑布群。“有点像没有旅馆的尼亚加拉大瀑布”，一位美国游客如是形容。

注：在冰岛，因为车辆较少，所以绝大多数桥梁只有一条路，后到的一方需要等到对面的车先行通过。

冰岛作为全世界最炙手可热的旅行目的地之一，盖锡尔间歇喷泉（Geysir）和古福斯瀑布（the Gullfoss Falls，冰岛语意为“黄金瀑布”）是吸引人们前来观光的最有名的景观之二。

Next year, it is forecast to receive 2m tourists, five times the number in 2010.

明年，冰岛预计将要接待200万游客——这一数字是2010年的5倍。

The hordes of visitors rescued Iceland's economy after its brush with financial disaster in 2008 when its three largest banks all but imploded.

在2008年遭遇金融灾难、其最大的三家银行都几近崩溃后，成群的游客挽救了冰岛的经济。

2000年到2016年（预计）赴冰岛游客数

But the rapid and largely unregulated rise of tourism is a reminder to many in Iceland of the mood before the financial crisis, raising questions of whether the island in the middle of the north Atlantic is heading for trouble again.

不过，这样急剧且很大程度上无节制的游客增长，像是一个提醒，让许多冰岛人嗅到了金融危机前夕的气氛。这让他们怀疑：这座北大西洋中间的岛国，是不是又大难临头了？

“Some kind of bust is coming.Reykjavik is getting much closer to how things felt just before the financial crisis.But there's nothing we can do about it,” says Snorri Valsson, manager of the Kvosin boutique hotel in Iceland's capital.

“某种萧条正在靠近。雷克雅未克（冰岛首都）越来越接近金融危机前的感觉，而我们又无能为力”，位于冰岛首都雷克雅未克的Kvosin精品酒店的主管Snorri Valsson说。

Thorvaldur Gylfason, an Icelandic economist, says: “There are too many signs of it being like 2007 again.We have utterly failed to learn a lesson.”

冰岛经济学家Thorvaldur Gylfason说：“很多兆头都指示着，我们又回到了类似2007年的情况。我们完全没有汲取教训。”

冰岛拥有丰富的地热资源 游客在当地尽情享受温泉

明明是一切欣欣向荣，冰岛旅游从业者和经济学家为何却要杞人忧天呢？

让冰岛人担心的，是经济结构的失调、道路等基础设施建设的滞后，以及诸多潜在的不确定因素（比如火山爆发可能切断这个岛国的空运）。

There is little doubt that Iceland is booming.The island of 320,000 people is swelled by an average of 30,000 tourists each day of the year, who flock to Iceland to experience its natural wonders from hot springs to the Northern Lights.The ratio of tourists to inhabitants is among the highest in the world.

毫无疑问，冰岛正在走向繁荣。这一年，平均每天有3万人源源不断地涌进这个只有32万人口的岛国，前来观赏热泉和北极光等自然奇观。冰岛的游客数比居民数这一比率，属全世界最高。

“The industry has gone from being ‘the little brother' in the economy to becoming — by far — the country's largest and most dynamic export sector,” says Grimur Saemundsson, chief executive of Blue Lagoon, a popular tourist attraction.

“旅游产业在经济中的地位已经从‘小兄弟'一跃变成目前这个国家最大的、同时也是最有活力的出口板块”，旅游名胜“蓝泻湖”首席执行官Grimur Saemundsson 这样说。

Tourism now accounts for about a third of Iceland's exports and the foreign currency they bring in has proved vital for the country's attempts to lift its crisis-era capital controls.More than a third of jobs created in the past five years have come from tourism while almost a half of new cars were sold to rental companies, according to local lender Islandsbanki.

旅游业如今占据了冰岛三分之一的出口额，它所带来的外汇收入，对于该国放宽其危机时期的资本管制来说，起到了重要的作用。过去五年里产生的三分之一的岗位由观光业带来，同时，据当地贷方艾兰银行数据，大约一半的新车被售卖给租车公司。

Bjarni Benediktsson, Iceland's finance minister, says it is good “we got another foot under our economy”.He admits there are challenges with tourism but “these are good things to deal with — they are in a way the difficulties of success”.

冰岛财政部长Bjarni Benediktsson持乐观态度：“我们有了支撑经济的另一条腿”。他承认旅游业面临着一些挑战，但是“这些待解决的是好事情，它们是成功路上需要解决的困难。”

不过，并不是所有人都这样认为。

These challenges include everything from the poor quality roads and overburdened infrastructure to a lack of accommodation and simmering popular discontent over how tourism is being handled.

Bjarni Benediktsson口中的这些“挑战”，其实包含了很多事情：从糟糕的公路质量、负担过重的基础设施，到住宿的缺乏，及慢慢激化的、大众关于如何控制旅游业的发展这一问题的不满。

景区压力

At Geysir and Gullfoss in central Iceland, dozens of buses and cars park at both attractions for free before disgorging tourists who pay no entrance fee.The roads across Iceland are under intense strain from hire cars and a tourist died just after Christmas in a head-on collision on a single-track bridge.

在冰岛中部的盖锡尔间歇喷泉和古福斯瀑布，免费地停着成群的巴士和汽车——它们等待着卸下免费参观景点的游客。租用的汽车，让横贯冰岛的公路承担着紧张的压力。就在圣诞节后不久，一名游客在单行桥上遭遇了一起迎头相撞的事故，不幸去世。

管理宽松

Many both in and out of the industry criticise the government for lax regulation.There is no entry fee levied on tourists and the overnight hotel tax is both loosely collected and low at just IKr100 ($0.88) per night.Visitors have increased by at least 20 per cent in each of the past five years with a 37 per cent rise forecast for this year.

旅游行业内外，都批评政府的监管不严。在冰岛，对游客不征收门票，过夜旅馆税的收缴既宽松又便宜，一晚不过100冰岛克朗（合0.88美元）。过去五年间，冰岛每年的游客增长率至少都有20%，预计今年这一数字为37%。

道路安全失去保障

“What are we sacrificing when we don't put a levy on tourists? The roads here are dangerous,” says Asta Helgadottir, an MP for the anti-establishment Pirate party, which tops polls ahead of elections this month.

“当不向游客征税，我们失去了什么？这里的道路极其危险”，Asta Helgadottir说道。她是反建制政党“海盗党”的议员，该党派在本月将要进行的议会选举的民调中领先。

Katrin Oddsdottir, a lawyer in Reykjavik, says: “It is the failure of the government.It's out of control.The attitude seems to be: why should we fix the roads for 2m people when there are just 320,000 of us?”

雷克雅未克的一名律师Katrin Oddsdottir说，“这是政府的失职。事态正在失去控制。当局的态度似乎是，当我们这里只有32万冰岛人，为什么要修供200万人使用的道路呢？”

居住问题

Accommodation is also a problem.Cranes everywhere in Reykjavik attest to the surge in hotel construction but the increase in rooms still lags behind the growth in tourism.Airbnb rentals have taken up some of the slack with the number of properties available to rent on the short-term rental website more than doubling in 2015 in the capital to 2,700.

居住也是个问题。在雷克雅未克，到处都是起重机，投入到酒店建设的浪潮中。不过房间的增加仍然赶不上旅游业的增长。Airbnb民宿分担了部分压力——该网站上，在冰岛首都雷克雅未克的短租房源在2015年数量翻了一倍还多，达到了2700处。

Worries abound over the social and economic effects of the boom among Reykjavik residents.“People are buying up whole buildings.It's just a far-fetched dream to be able to afford an apartment,” says Ms Helgadottir.

旅游业的爆发，让在雷克雅未克居民中，弥漫起对社会和经济效应的担忧。“建筑整栋地被买走，但事实上，（本地居民们）连一间公寓也买不起”，Helgadottir女士表示。

Icelanders fear the good times could come to an end in a number of ways: a volcanic eruption cuts off air traffic to Iceland; the island gets too expensive because of a strengthening krona; or growth becomes unsustainable.

冰岛人害怕好日子将会走到尽头：譬如火山的爆发切断了冰岛的空运；因为冰岛克朗的走强，岛上物价变得越来越贵；或者增长变得不可持续。

冰岛克朗兑美元汇率变化

政府官员还是发表了相对乐观的看法：

Mar Gudmundsson, central bank governor, says he is closely monitoring the risks, especially the exposure of banks to tourism, but so far he is not particularly worried.He adds: “This might at some point in the future create a need for an economic adjustment or recession, but it doesn't have to create a financial crisis.”

冰岛央行行长Mar Gudmundsson说，他正密切监视着这些风险，尤其是银行业对旅游业的风险敞口。但是迄今为止他不怎么担忧。他还说：“可能在将来的某一时刻需要一个经济调整，或者衰退，但是这不会引发金融危机。”

A big difference to the rise of the banks is that there are no “Viking raiders”, as the acquisitive businessmen who dominated pre-crash Iceland were known.Olof Yrr Atladottir, head of Iceland's tourist board, notes that many of the new businesses are small with just a few workers.Mr Gylfason believes the rise of tourism could reduce the influence of what he calls “the oligarchs” of Iceland's fishing industry.

那些为人所知的、在上一轮金融危机前控制着冰岛的贪婪的商人（他们被称为“维京掠夺者”），在此次冰岛银行业的崛起中并未出现。冰岛旅游委员会会长Olof Yrr Atladottir指出，许多新的公司很小，只有几个员工。经济学家Gylfason相信，旅游业的增长将削弱他所谓的冰岛捕鱼业的“寡头式”的地位。

But what the finance minister calls “Icelanders' hunter mentality” is kicking in as people in the tourism industry fear the worst.Mr Benediktsson says Iceland has long suffered from a boom and bust economy, common in countries that depend on natural resources such as fish.

但是冰岛财政部长Bjarni Benediktsson称，是“冰岛人的猎人思维”让旅游行业从业者们杞人忧天。Benediktsson先生说，冰岛经济一直大起大落，这一点和其他的依靠自然资源（如渔业）的国家一样。

冰岛首都雷克雅未克附近的桥梁

Asked what he is doing to brace for the bust he so fears, Mr Valsson, the hotel manager, says: “Make money while we can.”

当被问及如果担心的经济凋敝真的来临、将要做些什么来应对时，酒店经理Valsson说：“还是在能挣钱的时候挣钱吧。”

词汇总结

geyser ['giːzə; 'gaɪ-]

n.喷泉；[水文]间歇泉

scalding ['skɔːldɪŋ]

adj.滚烫的；尖刻的

The geyser spurts scalding hot water heavenwards to mass applause and “oohs” every few minutes.

每隔几分钟，伴随着人群的掌声和惊呼，滚烫的泉水就会朝着天空喷涌而出。

hordes of 成群的

The hordes of visitors rescued Iceland's economy after its brush with financial disaster in 2008 when its three largest banks all but imploded.

在2008年遭遇金融灾难、其最大的三家银行都几近崩溃后，成群的游客挽救了冰岛的经济。

inhabitant [ɪn'hæbɪt(ə)nt]

n.居民；居住者

The ratio of tourists to inhabitants is among the highest in the world.

冰岛的游客数比居民数这一比率，属全世界最高。

disgorge [dɪs'gɔːdʒ]

vt.吐出

At Geysir and Gullfoss in central Iceland, dozens of buses and cars park at both attractions for free before disgorging tourists who pay no entrance fee.

在冰岛中部的盖锡尔间歇喷泉和古福斯瀑布，免费地停着成群的巴士和汽车——它们等待着卸下免费参观景点的游客。