VOA慢速英语：彭博社：对美国经济衰退的预测百分百确定

根据新的预测模型，未来 12 个月内 美国经济衰退是 100% 确定的。
A U.S. recession is 100% certain within the next 12 months, according to a new forecast model.  
The U.S. economy is not immune to recession
美国经济不能幸免于衰退
 
The U.S. economy is 100% certain to enter a recession in the next 12 months, according to a model based on 13 financial indicators released by two Bloomberg economists on October 17. decline. To make matters worse, the seemingly inevitable recession could come sooner -- a 73% chance in 11 months and a 25% chance in 10 months.
根据两位彭博经济学家于 10 月 17 日发布的基于 13 项财务指标的模型，美国经济100% 肯定会在未来 12 个月内进入衰退。更糟糕的是，看似不可避免的衰退可能会更快到来——11 个月内有 73% 的可能性，10 个月内有 25% 的可能性。
 
These results are much worse than the last time Bloomberg ran the model, when it predicted a recession with only 65% ​​certainty. The results were more discouraging than President Joe Biden, who insisted the U.S. would avoid a recession, unlike many economists who say a recession appears to be near. Mr Biden said if there was some form of recession it would be "very mild".
这些结果比彭博社上次运行该模型时要差得多，当时它预测的衰退只有 65% 的确定性。结果比总统乔拜登更令人沮​​丧，他坚持认为美国将避免衰退，不像许多经济学家说衰退似乎就在附近。拜登先生说，如果出现某种形式的衰退，那将是“非常温和的”。
 
Not all experts are certain of a recession in the US. A survey of 42 economists predicted a 60 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months. However, their forecast was also worse compared to their last forecast, showing a 50% chance of the U.S. exiting the recession.
并非所有专家都确定美国经济衰退。一项针对 42 位经济学家的调查预测，未来 12 个月出现衰退的可能性为 60%。然而，与上次预测相比，他们的预测也更糟，显示美国有 50% 的机会退出衰退。
 
A separate poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal on Oct. 17 showed a 63 percent chance of a U.S. recession within a year. Polls point to a growing reason for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates after years of no adjustment. More than half of respondents believe the Fed will continue to raise interest rates above healthy levels, which will ultimately destabilize the economy.
《华尔街日报》10 月 17 日对经济学家进行的另一项民意调查显示，美国在一年内陷入衰退的可能性为 63%。民意调查指出，美联储（Fed）加息的原因在多年没有调整后越来越高。超过一半的受访者认为美联储将继续将利率提高到健康水平之上，这最终将破坏经济稳定。
 
Inflation continued to hover near four-year highs, even as the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates to curb rising living costs. While President Biden touts the jobs numbers in hopes of delivering some positive economic impact to voters, with Washington's very strong fiscal proposition and the rest of the world struggling, Biden's presidency has left a huge fiscal hole. Since entering the White House less than three years ago, Biden has increased the national debt by $3.37 trillion to a record $31 trillion.
通胀继续徘徊在四年高位附近，尽管美联储继续提高利率以遏制生活成本上升。虽然拜登总统吹捧就业数据，希望能给选民带来一些积极的经济影响，但华盛顿的财政主张非常强大，世界其他地区也陷入困境，拜登的总统任期留下了一个巨大的财政漏洞。自不到三年前进入白宫以来，拜登已将国债增加了 3.37 万亿美元，达到创纪录的 31 万亿美元。
 
While many Republicans - and even some Democrats - blame Biden for America's financial problems, his predecessor Donald Trump also added more than $7 trillion to the national debt, This is largely due to unprecedented money printing during the COVID-19 pandemic.
虽然许多共和党人——甚至一些民主党人——将美国的金融问题归咎于拜登，但他的前任唐纳德·特朗普也增加了超过 7 万亿美元的国债，这主要是由于 COVID-19 大流行期间前所未有的印钞。 
 
The global economy faces challenges
全球经济面临挑战
 
Meanwhile, the global economy is facing its biggest challenge in the past four years, according to former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.
与此同时，根据美国前财政部长拉里萨默斯的说法，全球经济正面临着过去四年来最大的挑战。
 
RT quoted Mr Summers as saying at the annual meeting of the Institute of International Finance in Washington: "This is the most complex, fragmented and challenging situation I can remember in 40 years." Quoting International Currency The IMF and the World Bank and central banks underestimated the risks posed by persistently high inflation and failed to take appropriate action to deal with the crisis.
RT 援引萨默斯先生在华盛顿国际金融学会年会上的话说：“这是我记忆中 40 年来最复杂、最分散、最具挑战性的情况。”引用国际货币基金组织和世界银行和中央银行低估了持续高通胀带来的风险，以及未能采取适当行动应对危机。 Between rising interest rates, a stronger dollar, energy and food shortages, geopolitical tensions and climate change, "someone should come up with a major solution" to change the situation for the better, Mr Summers said. However, he did not elaborate further on this.
萨默斯先生表示，在利率上升、美元走强、能源和粮食短缺、地缘政治紧张局势和气候变化之间，“应该有人提出一个重大解决方案”，以根据更好的方向改变局势。不过，他没有进一步详细说明这一点。
 
The Fed has raised rates five times so far this year, and other central banks around the world have followed suit. However, Mr Summers said regulators had waited too long to act to curb price increases, and even if it plunged the economy into recession, interest rates would have to rise further.
美联储今年迄今已五次加息，全球其他央行纷纷效仿。然而，萨默斯先生表示，监管机构等了太久才采取行动遏制价格上涨，即使这会使经济陷入衰退，利率也必须进一步上升。
 
“如果你试图避免加息，你最终只会陷入通胀停滞的状态，之后将不得不采取更艰难的步骤。这将给世界其他地区带来所有后果，”他警告说。
"If you try to avoid rate hikes, you'll just end up with inflation stagnating and then you'll have to take harder steps. That will have all the consequences for the rest of the world," he warned.
 
根据萨默斯的说法，这样的后果之一是难以为债务市场融资。他以英国为例：英格兰银行上个月启动了一项紧急政府债券购买计划，以应对政府宣布大规模减税后债券价格的大幅下跌。
One consequence of this, according to Summers, is the difficulty of financing debt markets. He cited the UK as an example: The Bank of England launched an emergency government bond-buying programme last month in response to a sharp fall in bond prices after the government announced massive tax cuts.
 
"Given what's happening in the UK, some of it is self-inflicted, but some of it is a shock to what's happening in the global system... When a concussion occurs, It's not always earthquakes, but maybe you should think about preventing them," he explained.
“鉴于在英国发生的事情，其中​​一些是自己造成的，但其中一些是对全球系统正在发生的事情的震惊......当发生脑震荡时，并不总是地震，但也许你应该考虑一下防止地震，”他解释说。