为什么一些生产线在从中国回流英国？

Three years ago, on the London Tube, I ran into a chap I know, Tom Davies. I met him first in 2001 when I wrote about his new, eponymous company which made upmarket glasses frames. The business later grew from being so niche it was practically secret to having its own factory in China, shops across London and spots in 1,000 opticians worldwide.

3年前，我在伦敦地铁遇上了一个认识的人汤姆•戴维斯(Tom Davies)(见题图)。我最早是在2001年遇到他的。那时我写了有关他新创建的同名公司的文章。这家公司生产高档眼镜架。它太小众了，简直不为人知，后来发展壮大了，在中国有了自己的工厂，在伦敦有了门店，在全球1000家眼镜店销售。

It even gained me as a customer for its made-to-measure service, with my oversized head and lopsided ears — as well as celebrity clients, from Heston Blumenthal to Ed Sheeran.

这家公司甚至把我发展成了其定制服务的客户(我的头有点儿大，耳朵不太对称)，还有一些名人客户，包括赫斯顿•布鲁门塔尔(Heston Blumenthal)和艾德•希兰(Ed Sheeran)。

So, I asked back in 2014 as we strap-hung on the District Line, what Mr Davies’ business was up to? “Well,” he said, “I’m thinking of moving production from China to the UK. It’s not as cheap as it was, and Made in England would be a great sales point.”

所以，当2014年我俩在区域线(District Line)拉住吊环站立时，我问他生意怎么样?“很好”，他说，“我在考虑把生产线从中国搬到英国。那边不像以前那么成本低了，再说‘英格兰制造’(Made in England)将成为一个极好的卖点。”

He is now doing just that. Last week, I visited Mr Davies as builders were scrambling to finish converting a derelict factory in west London to which he and 30 staff are moving shortly, with 20 more to join later. He plans to have 30 per cent of manufacturing in the UK by the end of 2017, 70 per cent in three years.

目前他正在做这件事。上周，我去拜访了戴维斯，建筑工人们正忙着改装伦敦西部一处废弃工厂。戴维斯和30名员工不久后将搬进去，未来还要进驻20人。他打算到2017年底让英国产量占到30%，在3年内提高至70%。

In a curious twist on the industrial history of recent decades, teams of Chinese staff are coming over to train British workers. It may seem almost a suicide mission on their part, but Mr Davies is not closing the Shenzhen factory, just no longer expanding it as the business grows.

几个中国员工团队将过来培训英国工人，成为最近几十年工业历史的吊诡一幕。对他们来说，这也许看上去像是一个自杀式任务，但戴维斯无意关闭深圳工厂，只是在业务增长时不再扩大该厂。

There has been much noise in Donald Trump’s US about bringing manufacturing back to developed countries, or “reshoring”. Is Mr Davies riding a fresh trend in the UK?

在唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的美国，让制造业回到发达国家(或称“回流”)的呼声很响亮。戴维斯是否代表了英国的一种新趋势?

I asked the China-Britain Business Council in London about other UK companies moving production from China. Remarkably, they had no record of any such thing. “It’s something businesses talk about, but it never seems to happen,” said an official. “Your guy may be a pioneer.”

我向伦敦的英中贸易协会(China-Britain Business Council)询问了有关其他英国公司从中国迁回生产线的情况。值得注意的是，该协会没有这种动向的记录。“这是企业在谈论的事情，但似乎从未发生，”一名官员表示，“你认识的人也许是一个先驱。”

The most surprising reason Mr Davies has for his move is economic. There may be an element of justifying his decision retrospectively, but he believes he can lower prices by making in Britain. Labour costs in China have risen. Many Chinese businesses I speak to are thinking beyond manufacturing in established cheaper bases like Vietnam and Bangladesh and are looking elsewhere.

戴维斯这么做的最令人吃惊的原因是经济上的。也许存在回过头来为自己的决定找理由的因素，但他相信，他可以通过在英国生产来降低价格。中国的劳动力成本已升高。我与之交谈过的许多中国企业不仅在考虑把生产线搬到越南和孟加拉国等成熟的更廉价基地，而是把目光投向其他地区。

“The Shenzhen average [annual salary] in 2007 was £2,500,” said Mr Davies. “It’s now £8,000, and I have key people earning up to £55,000. Our car park is now full of workers’ cars.”

“2007年深圳平均(年工资)是2500英镑，”戴维斯说，“现在是8000英镑。我的关键员工每年赚5.5万英镑。现在，我们的停车场上停满了工人的车。”

The differential in premises costs is also not startling. His Shenzhen plant costs £2 per sq ft, but would go beyond £4 if he renewed his lease. His London cost is £8 per sq ft, although this factory also needed a £600,000 refurb.

经营场所成本的差距也不再令人震惊。在他的深圳工厂，每平方英尺的成本是2英镑，但如果他续签租约，成本将升到4英镑以上。在他的伦敦厂房，每平方英尺的成本是8英镑，尽管厂房翻新还需要60万英镑。

Logistics costs will be lower making glasses in London. But the biggest saving will be because technology in his industry has moved on. A computer-controlled machine tool once costing £250,000 is now a twentieth of that, he says — ironically, from Chinese makers. The software is also cheaper and easier to use. All this means he needs fewer staff, Chinese or British, than he used to.

在伦敦生产眼镜的物流成本将会更低。但是，对成本节省贡献最大的因素在于行业的技术进步。他介绍说，数控机床曾卖到25万英镑，而现在的价格仅为原来的5%——讽刺的是这些机床来自中国厂商。软件也更便宜，更容易使用。这一切意味着，他需要的员工(无论中国员工还是英国员工)比以往更少。

The Made in England cachet, Mr Davies believes, will help in a business that has one foot in the fashion world. “The Americans will love it, and it could also help us in the Far East. In China itself, customers love things not made in China.”

戴维斯认为，“英格兰制造”的威望将有助于一家涉足时尚领域的企业。“美国人将喜欢这个标签，在远东，这可能也会对我们有利。在中国，顾客喜欢不在国内制造的东西。”

Finally, Mr Davies told me, he is tired, as the boss and head designer, of travelling. “I’m 42 now, I live in perpetual jet lag and I’ve had enough of it.” He expects the Shenzhen factory to be a self-running satellite.

最后，戴维斯告诉我，作为老板和首席设计师，他已厌倦了旅行。“今年我42岁了，没完没了地在倒时差，有点受够了。”他期望深圳工厂成为一家自主经营的卫星企业。

This initiative is a mere pixel in a panorama. I wonder, though, if it became a trend, whether this would be good or bad for China?

在国际经济全景图中，此举只是一个像素。然而我纳闷的是，如果这成为一种趋势，那它对中国是好还是坏呢?

My guess is that it would be good. Younger Chinese people are tiring of being the world’s workshop. And judging by the quality and design of Chinese consumer technology I see, they are ready to become, like Japan and South Korea, originators rather than subcontractors.

我猜，这对中国将是好事。中国的年轻人开始厌倦充当世界工厂。而从我见到的中国消费科技的质量和设计来衡量，他们已准备好成为像日本和韩国那样的发起人，而非承包商。

An upgrade to China 2.0, a confident, developed country making its own, globally desired products would have its problems, but it would ultimately be a progressive, stabilising development.

升级至中国2.0版(一个自信的发达国家，生产自主产权的、全球追逐的产品)将有新的问题，但最终而言，那将是一个进步的、有利于稳定的动向。