巴西：世界自由秩序危机的一个缩影
费尔南多•恩里克•卡多佐(Fernando Henrique Cardoso)见证了巴西的糟糕时期、繁荣时期和如今的危机。担任巴西总统期间(1995年至2002年)，卡多佐巩固了巴西的民主制度，改革了国内经济。在接下来的10年，巴西国内财富的激增引起了全世界的关注，它还获得了世界杯(World Cup)和奥运会(Olympics)的主办权。
But sitting in his office in São Paulo last week, Mr Cardoso, now 86, calmly acknowledged that Brazil faces “a moral and economic crisis”. The economy shrank by almost 8 per cent in 2015 and 2016. President Dilma Rousseff was impeached and removed from office last year. The current president, Michel Temer, and some 40 per cent of the members of Congress are under investigation over corruption.
然而，坐在圣保罗的办公室里，现年86岁的卡多佐坦然自若地承认，巴西正面临“一场道德和经济危机”。巴西经济在2015、2016两年萎缩了近8%。总统迪尔玛•罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)去年遭到弹劾，被迫下台。现任总统米歇尔•特梅尔(Michel Temer)和国民议会约40%的议员都在接受腐败调查。
This Brazilian crisis has global implications. In the good times, the country became a symbol of the triumph of liberal politics and economics around the world. In the bad times, however, Brazil’s plight has become a symptom of a global crisis in the liberal order.
巴西面临的这场危机具有全球性意义。繁荣时期，巴西是世界各地自由的政治和经济理念取得伟大成就的象征。然而，艰难时期，巴西遭遇的困境又成了全球性自由秩序危机的征候。
By cutting subsidies, controlling inflation, pursuing privatisation and opening the economy up to competition, Mr Cardoso laid the foundations for a long economic expansion. His successor as president, Luiz Inácio da Silva, known as “Lula”, was a leftist who built on the liberal reforms that he had inherited. In the Lula era, Brazil’s notorious inequality was attacked through social programmes that attracted global praise.
通过削减补贴、控制通胀、推行私有化并在经济中引入竞争，卡多佐为巴西长期经济增长奠定了基础。继任者路易斯•伊纳西奥•达席尔瓦(Luiz Inácio da Silva)——“卢拉”(Lula)——是一名左翼，其政绩建立在自己继承的自由主义改革的基础上。卢拉时代，巴西通过推行一些社会项目改善了本国严重的社会不平等，赢得了全球赞誉。
As a country with a population of 207m — roughly half of South America — Brazil became an informal spokesman for the continent and an emerging world order. Through the Brics group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, Brazil pushed for a global rebalancing of power, in a way that seemed both overdue and unthreatening. Former US president Barack Obama publicly embraced Lula, saying: “I love this guy.”
作为一个拥有2.07亿人口的国家(约占南美总人口的一半)，巴西已成为南美大陆及新兴世界秩序的非正式发言人。通过金砖国家集团(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)，巴西以一种看似慢了半拍但又毫无威胁的方式推动了全球力量再平衡。美国前总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)当众拥抱卢拉，并称：“我喜欢这个家伙。”
But this year, Lula was convicted of corruption, and may now be barred from seeking re-election in next year’s presidential poll. His downfall is a symbol of the disappointed hopes of many poorer Brazilians. With the economy in crisis, inequality rising again, and the “car wash” corruption scandal in full flow, the Brazilian political class is widely despised. Voters are increasingly cynical and deeply polarised.
但就在今年，卢拉被判犯有贪污罪，可能被禁止在明年的总统选举中寻求再任。他的倒台象征着众多赤贫的巴西人落空的希望。随着经济陷入危机、社会不平等重新加剧以及“洗车”(Car Wash)腐败丑闻全面爆发，巴西的政治阶层受到了广大民众的鄙视。选民们越来越愤世嫉俗，日益陷入严重分化。
In a pattern now familiar in the US and Europe, populist politicians are using the crisis to move into the mainstream. An early opinion poll for the 2018 presidential election show Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right nationalist, in second place behind Lula. Mr Bolsonaro, a former military officer, has a political style that makes Donald Trump seem gentle. He dedicated his vote to impeach the president to Colonel Brilhante Ustra, who ran a squad that tortured Ms Rousseff when she was a political prisoner during Brazil’s military dictatorship.
民粹主义政客正在利用当前危机进入主流政治，这是一种如今在美国和欧洲惯见的模式。早先一项针对2018年总统选举的民意调查显示，极右翼民族主义者雅伊尔•博尔索纳洛(Jair Bolsonaro)的支持率居卢拉之后，位列第二。军人出身的博尔索纳洛严厉的政治风格让唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)都显得逊色。博尔索纳洛投票支持弹劾总统罗塞夫，附和布里良特•乌斯特拉上校(Brilhante Ustra)，后者领导的机构在巴西军事独裁时期折磨过当时作为政治犯的罗塞夫。
Like Rodrigo Duterte, the wild-man president of the Philippines, Mr Bolsonaro is building his popularity by promising to get tough on crime. The fact that Rio de Janeiro is in the grip of a violent crime wave make his appeals for a restoration of “order” widely popular. In Brazil last week, most pundits saw Mr Bolsonaro as too extreme to win. But the reassurances I received in well-appointed offices reminded me uncomfortably of conversations in Washington in 2015, when a Trump victory was deemed inconceivable.
就像菲律宾性格张狂的总统罗德里戈•杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)一样，博尔索纳洛正在通过承诺严厉打击犯罪积聚声望。里约热内卢正发生一波暴力犯罪浪潮的事实，使他发出的恢复“秩序”的呼吁受到了广泛欢迎。在巴西，目前多数学者都认为博尔索纳洛太过极端，不能赢得胜选。但坐在精心布置的办公室里听到这样的话，让我不安地想起了2015年在华盛顿的一些对话，当时特朗普胜选也被看作是不可思议的。 无论博尔索纳洛胜选与否，他作为一个重要政治人物的出现，标志着巴西政治严重的两极分化。许多左翼人士认为，卢拉与罗塞夫都是右翼势力发动的非法政变的受害者。保守派的回应是，他们领导的劳工党(Workers’ party)依靠腐败行为、裙带关系和挥霍性开支扩大了权力，拖累了巴西经济下滑。双方的骂战让人不由地联想起在特朗普治下的美国和决定退欧后的英国那种根深蒂固的党派偏见。
Whether Mr Bolsonaro wins or not, his emergence as a serious political figure is a sign of the bitter polarisation of Brazilian politics. Many on the left argue that both Lula and Dilma are victims of an illegitimate coup by a rightwing establishment. The conservative response is that their Workers’ party built its power on corruption, patronage and wasteful spending, which dragged the economy down. The invective on both sides is strongly reminiscent of the partisanship gripping Trump’s America and Brexit Britain.
巴西面临的危机有其内部原因和逻辑。但它也反映了一种全球模式。卡多佐的改革发生在一个自由的经济政治理念在世界各地占据支配地位的时代。他在柏林墙倒塌六年后、巴西军人统治结束10年后成为总统。当时，中国、印度、墨西哥、波兰等其他处于中等收入水平的发展中国家也正在踏上自由和经济改革的道路。而且，当时坐镇白宫的是比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)——一个骄傲的“全球主义者”。
Brazil’s crisis has its own internal causes and logic. But it also fits a global pattern. Mr Cardoso’s reforms took place in an era when liberal economic and political ideas were in the ascendancy around the world. He became president six years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and 10 years after the end of military rule in Brazil. Other developing and middle-income countries, such as China, India, Mexico and Poland, were also following the path of liberal, economic reform. And Bill Clinton, a proud “globalist”, was in the White House.
但2008年金融危机引发了对“新自由主义”的反弹。美国现任总统如今谴责全球主义，宣扬保护主义。北京、德里、莫斯科、安卡拉掌权的都是奉行民族主义的铁腕人物。卡多佐——一名会讲多种语言的教授——属于另一个不同的时代，那个时代掌权的是技术官僚和学界人士。
But the financial crisis of 2008 sparked a backlash against “neoliberalism”. The current US president now denounces globalism and preaches protectionism. Nationalist strongmen are in power in Beijing, Delhi, Moscow and Ankara. Mr Cardoso, a multilingual professor, belongs to a different era when technocrats and academics were in charge. And yet Brazilian liberals are far from ready to admit defeat. The corruption scandal has turned politics upside down, but many hope it will be the basis for a more just and efficient Brazil. The depth of the current economic crisis may also force Brazil to return to the path of economic reform, with a renewed attack on subsidies and clientelism. And Mr Cardoso is adamant that the political progress of the previous decades will endure. In the past, he says, “Brazilians all knew the names of the top generals . . . But now everybody knows the names of the judges and prosecutors. That’s progress.”
然而，巴西的自由主义者远没有打算承认失败。腐败丑闻已经把巴西政坛搅得天翻地覆，但许多人希望这将促使巴西转变为一个更公正、更有效率的国家。当前经济危机的严重程度可能还会迫使巴西回到经济改革的道路上，再次对补贴和裙带关系进行打击。卡多佐坚信，此前几十年的政治进程将延续下去。在过去，他说，“巴西人只知道高级将领的名字……但现在大家都知道法官和检察官的名字。这就是进步。”
