中国将让地方养老基金入市

China’s local pension funds will launch a first wave of investment in the domestic stock market by the end of this year to try to lift returns before an ageing population becomes a drain on regional finances.

中国地方养老基金将最迟在今年底在国内股市进行第一波投资，力求在人口老龄化拖累地区财政之前提高回报率。

The government has unveiled an ambitious scheme that could help local authorities counter record-low interest rates and reduce the Chinese equity market’s volatility.

政府发布了一个雄心勃勃的计划，有望帮助地方政府克服创纪录的低利率，同时降低中国股市的波动。

The human resources ministry said that a number of local governments had transferred assets to the National Social Security Fund, where managers have broader latitude to invest in riskier assets, including up to 40 per cent in equities and stock funds.

人力资源和社会保障部表示，一批地方政府已向全国社会保障基金(NSSF)转移资产;国家社会保障基金的管理人有更大的自由，可投资于风险较高的资产，包括至多40%的股票和股票基金。

This first wave will release between Rmb200bn-Rmb400bn ($30bn-$60bn) to be invested, according to analysts briefed on the details.

据听取了相关介绍的一些分析师透露，第一波将释放2000亿至4000亿元人民币(合300亿至600亿美元)用于投资。

The government started drawing up plans for such transfers to the NSSF in June last year, amid investor panic that burst a Chinese stock market bubble.

政府在去年6月开始制定向全国社会保障基金进行此类资产转移的计划，当时投资者恐慌使中国股市泡沫破裂。

The expansion of the NSSF, which held Rmb1.9tn of assets in 2015, will increase its power in the domestic stock market, diminishing the influence of the army of retail investors and potentially creating a more stable flow of funds into stocks. If all provinces join the fund, that would mean up to Rmb2tn more could flow into equities.

全国社会保障基金在2015年持有1.9万亿元人民币资产;该基金的扩大将增加其在国内股市的力量，减少散户投资者大军的影响力，潜在创建流入股市的更稳定资金流。如果所有省份都加入该基金，那将意味着高达2万亿元人民币可能投入股票。

“In theory, it’s a good thing to do and should increase returns,” said Stuart Leckie, Stirling Finance chairman, who has advised the government on pension reform. “But it was primarily done to support the stock market. They’re doing something good for the wrong reasons.”

“理论上这是一件好事，应该有助于提高回报，”向中国政府提供养老金改革咨询的Stirling Finance公司的董事长李仕达(Stuart Leckie)表示，“但此举主要是为了支持股市。他们正在出于错误的动机做正确的事。”

The Rmb5tn state pension funds managed by local governments are restricted to investing in safe assets such as bank deposits and government bonds. But these assets have had such low returns that local governments’ pension funds shrank in real terms over the past decade, at a time when more and more are nearing retirement.

由地方政府管理的5万亿元人民币的政府养老基金，目前只能投资于银行存款和政府债券等安全资产。但这些资产的回报率如此之低，以至于地方政府养老基金在过去10年里按实际价值计算出现缩水，与此同时有越来越多的人接近退休年龄。

Guangdong was the first province to entrust Rmb100bn of its pension assets to the NSSF in a pilot in 2012. The government did not disclose details of which local authorities are taking part in the first tranche.

广东省在2012年率先向全国社会保障基金委托1000亿元人民币养老金资产，成为第一个试点省份。政府没有公布哪几个地方政府将参与第一波资产转移的细节。

China’s old-age dependency ratio — the ratio of over 65s to those of working age — is set to double to 30 per cent by 2030: much faster than the rate of ageing for the world as a whole, according to the UN Population Division.

根据联合国人口司(UN Population Division)的推算，到2030年，中国的老年抚养比(65岁以上人口与工作年龄人口之比)将翻一番，达到30%：这个老龄化速度远远高于世界整体水平。

The NSSF has achieved an average nominal return of nearly 9 per cent per year over the past 15 years, which it boasts matches the performance of the more experienced Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. The NSSF was set up in 2000 in anticipation that struggling provinces in the north-east rust-belt would need help to meet their pension commitments.

全国社会保障基金在过去15年实现了每年近9%的平均名义回报率;该基金夸耀称，这足以媲美经验更丰富的加拿大退休金计划投资委员会(CPPIB)的表现。全国社会保障基金成立于2000年，背景是政府预计东北几个境况不佳的老工业省份在履行养老金承诺方面将需要帮助。

Some economists believe the reforms are not enough to secure pensioners’ livelihoods. “I no longer think the Chinese system can be reformed,” said Peter Diamond, a Nobel Prize winner in economics who co-authored a book on Chinese pension reform. “It must be taken apart and built back from the ground up.”

一些经济学家认为，这些改革不足以保障养老金领取者的生计。“我不再认为中国的体制可以改革，”诺贝尔经济学奖得主、曾就中国养老金改革与人合著一本书的彼得•戴蒙德(Peter Diamond)表示，“它必须被拆解开，然后从头开始重建。”

“This is the first time we’ve seen a country this size go through a demographic transition so quickly,” said Wen Tan of Aberdeen Asset Management. “There will need to be government injections at some point.”

“这是我们第一次看到如此规模的国家经历这么快的人口结构转变，”安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management)的Wen Tan表示，“在某个时点将会需要政府注资。”