内地投资者推动香港股市上涨

CK Chow struck a cautious note at the start of the week when revealing the Hong Kong Exchange’s annual results. With average daily turnover down 37 per cent, the exchange chairman’s wariness was understandable as he talked of a “challenging” outlook and volatile markets.

本周初，当港交所(HKEx)年报公布时，周松岗(CK Chow)表达了谨慎的看法。在平均日成交量下降37%的情况下，当这位港交所主席谈到“具有挑战性的”前景和动荡的市场行情时，他的谨慎是可以理解的。

Yet such caution is out of step with the mood. Hong Kong’s blue-chip Hang Seng and China-focused Hang Seng China Enterprises indices are among Asia’s best performers in 2017. Their rallies mark the first positive start to a year for either benchmark since 2012.

不过，这种谨慎与市场情绪不符。由蓝筹股组成的恒生指数(Hang Seng Index)和聚焦内地企业的恒生中国企业指数(HSCEI，简称国企指数)居于2017年开年表现最好的亚洲股指之列。这两大股指的上涨，均标志着各自2012年以来的首次开年上涨。

The Hang Seng has risen 7.9 per cent, while the HSCEI has climbed 9.5 per cent. Trading volumes in the past month are running a fifth above last year’s average, and block trades — a sign of institutional investor appetite — have picked up sharply.

恒生指数上涨了7.9%，国企指数上涨了9.5%。上个月的交易额比去年平均月交易额高五分之一，大宗交易——标志着机构投资者的胃口——大幅增加。

But this buoyant start has so far failed to deliver the Hang Seng a decisive break above the 24,000 mark, which has, more or less, acted as a ceiling for the past seven years. The index closed 0.8 per cent lower yesterday at 23,740.

但这轮上涨行情目前尚未能使恒生指数稳稳站到24000点的关键点位上方，这一关口或多或少地充当了过去7年恒生指数的天花板。昨日恒生指数收跌0.8%，收于23740点。

The key, say strategists, is how sentiment evolves towards China. More than three-quarters of the Hang Seng’s market capitalisation is made up companies from the mainland. That sharpens the focus on the HSCEI, which consists only of the Hong Kong listings of mainland-based companies.

策略分析师称，关键是市场关于中国内地的情绪将如何演变。恒生指数超过四分之三的市值由内地企业构成。这强化了人们对国企指数——仅包含在香港上市的内地企业——的关注。

“Investors tend to only focus on China when they perceive trouble, but we believe now is a good time to consider the opportunities,” says Helen Zhu, head of China equities at BlackRock.

“当投资者察觉有麻烦时，往往只关注中国内地，但我们认为如今是考虑机会的好时机，”贝莱德(BlackRock)中国股票主管朱悦(Helen Zhu)表示。

In terms of earnings, the HSCEI has long appeared to be a bargain, trading on just eight times forecast profits. Although that is up from six times a year ago, it compares with 13 for Shanghai and 23 for the tech-heavy Shenzhen.

在收益方面，长期以来国企指数的估值似乎一直很低，预期市盈率仅为8倍。尽管比一年前的6倍预期市盈率高，但沪指和侧重科技股的深指的预期市盈率分别为13倍和23倍。

Investor surveys suggest international fund managers hold the lowest positions in Chinese stocks in a decade, relative to benchmark indices. Yet traders and bankers say international buyers have not been driving the rally, leaving open the possibility they could provide fresh impetus if those underweight investors choose to buy later.

投资者调查表明，相比基准指数，国际基金管理公司持有中国股票的仓位为十年来最低。不过交易员和银行人士称，国际买家没有推动此轮上涨，因此如果那些低配的投资者之后选择买入，可能提供新的上涨动力。

“In our view, China’s improving fundamentals underpin the recent gains in the equity market,” says John Woods, Asia Pacific chief investment officer for Credit Suisse Private Bank.

“在我们看来，中国不断改善的基本面支撑了股市最近的涨势，”瑞士信贷私人银行(Credit Suisse Private Banking)亚太区首席投资官约翰•伍兹(John Woods)表示。

He predicts the HSCEI can gain another 11 per cent over the next few months.

他预测，未来数月国企指数可能再上涨11%。

So far the evidence points to mainland investors driving the Hong Kong rally. Net inflows via the Stock Connect trading schemes that link Shenzhen and Shanghai with Hong Kong have reached almost $7bn in 2017 — almost 50 per cent higher than last year.

到目前为止，证据指向了推动香港股市上涨的是内地投资者。2017年，经由沪港通和深港通渠道的净资金流入达到近70亿美元，比去年增加了近50%。

“The key catalyst for the rally is the marked acceleration in southbound Connect flows,” explains Jonathan Garner, chief Asia and emerging markets equity strategist for Morgan Stanley. The bank has a year-end target of 26,000 for the Hang Seng.

“涨势的关键催化剂是沪港通和深港通资金南向流动的明显加快，”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)亚洲及新兴市场首席股票策略师乔纳森•加纳(Jonathan Garner)解释称。该行认为年底恒生指数的目标点位为26000点。

Bankers say the flows are being led by an increase in interest from insurers and mutual funds. As a result, a persistent premium for the domestic A share market over H shares — the Hong Kong shares of mainland groups — is hovering near its lowest in two years. It has fallen to 19 per cent from 37 per cent a year ago.

银行家表示，南向资金增加，是保险公司和共同基金对香港市场兴趣日益浓厚的结果。因此，内地A股对H股(内地公司在香港上市的股票)的持续溢价徘徊在两年来的最低点附近。溢价从一年前的37%下降到19%。

The efforts of policymakers in Beijing to cool China’s property market are also encouraging investors to turn to stocks: the Shanghai Composite index finished February with its best performance, up 2.6 per cent, since November.

北京政策制定者给中国房地产市场降温的努力也促使投资者转向股票：2月份上证综指(Shanghai Composite)上涨2.6%，为去年11月以来的最好行情。

The renminbi is playing a role, too. Its fall last year — the offshore rate dropped 5.8 per cent against the dollar — encouraged the mainland move into dollar-pegged Hong Kong as a hedge. This year its gains have been viewed offshore, along with a series of surprisingly positive data on trade and manufacturing, as a sign of China’s stabilising economy.

人民币汇率也在起作用。去年的人民币贬值——人民币兑美元离岸汇率下跌5.8%——促使内地资金进入跟美元挂钩的香港，以此作为风险对冲。今年，人民币离岸汇率升高，加上一系列令人惊讶的贸易和制造业乐观数据，都表明中国经济正在企稳。

Yet analysts warn that Hong Kong’s rally could yet come undone. They cite the risk of US protectionism to export-heavy China, as well as the rising danger the Federal Reserve could tighten policy more than expected. China’s monetary policy has also been tightening.

然而，分析师们警告称，香港股市的上涨也可能逆转。他们提到了美国保护主义对于重度依赖出口的中国的风险，以及不断升高的美联储(Fed)可能超预期收紧政策的危险。一段时间以来，中国也在收紧货币政策。

“We can tell a more positive macro story so far this year but I still think it’s too early to say everything is fine with China,” says Kinger Lau, chief China strategist at Goldman Sachs. “Things are getting better but complacency is also quite high — we can say market momentum in the short term will be OK, but longer term I am not so sure.”

“今年到目前为止，我们可以说宏观经济呈现出更乐观的迹象，但我仍认为，要说中国经济的方方面面都很好，还为时过早，”高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席中国策略师刘劲津(Kinger Lau)说，“形势变得越来越好，但自满情绪也相当高——我们可以说，短期市场势头将很不错，但长期势头我就不太肯定了。”