“一带一路”不仅仅关乎经贸

In discussing China’s ambitious One Belt, One Road infrastructure project last week, we argued that the rest of the world must see it for what it is: not simply an investment plan to be assessed on conventional economic grounds but an attempt at shaping the geostrategic structure of the global economy in future decades.

上周，在讨论中国雄心勃勃的“一带一路”基建计划时，我们的观点是，世界其他国家必须从本质看待这一倡议：不单单是一项可从传统经济角度评估的投资计划，而且还是塑造未来几十年全球经济地缘战略结构的一次尝试。

To better understand why, it is important to have a sense of how the economic relationship created by a successful Belt and Road initiative would add up to much more than the sum of their its parts. (Whether it could be successful is an important question, too. Christopher Balding argues that even for China, the price tag of $1tn, give or take, may be too much of a stretch. The think-tank Bruegel agrees.)

为了更好地理解个中缘由，重要的是要意识到，成功的一带一路倡议所创建的经济关系将如何产生“一加一大于二”的效果。(这一倡议能否取得成功也是一个重要问题。克里斯托弗•鲍尔丁(Christopher Balding)认为，即便对中国而言，1万亿美元左右的投资或许也力有不逮。智库勃鲁盖尔(Bruegel)同意鲍尔丁的说法。)

Paul Krugman dips into his earlier research programme on economic geography and provides a clear and succinct illustration of how infrastructure links such as those One Belt, One Road contemplates, matter. If economic activity is more profitable when done at greater scale, then (even small) transport upgrades that make one location better connected to many others can create a pole of attraction for investment and economic growth there, built on its cost-efficiency (even if small) in supplying those other markets. As a result, “you can definitely see Belts and Roads as a bit of a strategic trade policy as well as being a strategic, well, strategic policy”.

保罗•克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)翻出了自己早期对于经济地理学的研究，并清晰而简明地说明了如一带一路倡议尝试打造的这类基础设施网络有多么重要。如果以更大规模进行经济活动更有利可图，那么让一地与其他很多地方更便捷地连接起来的交通升级(即使小规模)便能为该地吸引投资和促进经济增长，因为在为其他市场提供供给时，该地有了成本效益(即使小规模)。因此，“你当然可以将一带一路看作一种战略性的贸易政策，同时也看作一种战略性的战略政策。”

Bruegel has examined the “strategic trade” bit of the policy in some detail, looking at the effects of trade both from reducing transport costs and of reducing trade barriers, should the infrastructure part of One Belt, One Road be matched by creating a free-trade area between its member countries. Interestingly, Europe would benefit from the infrastructure, but lose out from the creation of a FTA as some trade would be diverted. One can just about glimpse a future situation where the EU would feel a stronger imperative and therefore have a weaker bargaining position in negotiating free trade with China than is the case today.

智库勃鲁盖尔详细地考察了其作为“战略贸易政策”的属性，从降低运输成本和减少贸易壁垒方面观察对贸易的影响——如果一带一路倡议的基建部分配以在成员国之间建立自由贸易区的话。有意思的是，欧洲将从基建项目中受益，但会因自由贸易区的创建蒙受损失，因为部分贸易将转向。可以想象，未来的欧盟将有更强的紧迫感，因此在与中国谈判自由贸易时将处于比今天不利的谈判地位。

Kadira Pethiyagoda from Brookings explores the “strategic strategic” bit. China’s “overarching foreign policy goal” with One Belt, One Road, he writes, is “to reach strategic parity with the United States in Asia and reshape its security environment to ensure its rise is unrestrained”. One Belt, One Road can contribute to this partly because “China’s infrastructure investments are often such that its influence over the host state is difficult to dislodge without breaching global economic norms”. Pethiyagoda offers Sri Lanka as an example where a change in the regime did not ultimately affect China’s standing.

布鲁金斯学会(Brookings)的卡迪拉•佩西亚戈达(Kadira Pethiyagoda)分析了一带一路作为“战略性的战略政策”的属性。他写道，中国一带一路倡议的“首要外交政策目标”是要“在亚洲与美国实现战略上平起平坐，并重塑安全环境以确保崛起不受制约”。一带一路之所以能有助于此，一定程度上是因为“中国的基础设施投资往往是，不打破全球经济规范就很难消除中国在东道国的影响力”。佩西亚戈达举了斯里兰卡的例子，政权更迭最终并未影响中国在该国的影响力。

To see just how deeply political the whole project is, take some time to study the leaked plans for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, published recently by the Dawn newspaper recently. As my FT colleagues point out in their analysis of CPEC, this hugely ambitious project raised concerns in Pakistan (and beyond) in part because of the deep involvement envisaged for the industrial arms of Chinese military institutions.

为弄清楚整个一带一路倡议有多么深刻的政治性，可以花些时间研究一下最近由《黎明报》(Dawn)曝光的中巴经济走廊(China-Pakistan Economic Corridor)计划。正如我的英国《金融时报》的同事在对中巴经济走廊的分析中指出的，这个极为雄心勃勃的计划在巴基斯坦(以及其他国家)引发了担忧，部分原因是中国军事机构的工业企业预计将深度参与其中。

None of this has to mean that One Belt, One Road is a bad idea — least of all for China — or that it has to be a zero-sum game that the rest of the world needs to oppose. But it does mean, as we argued last week, that the rest of the world needs to see it as the geostrategic plan it is, and countries should engage with it on the basis of their own geostrategic visions. That applies above all to the other end of the axis China is trying build: European nations and the EU.

这一切并不必然意味着一带一路倡议是个坏主意(尤其对中国来说)，也不必然意味着这是世界其他国家都需要反对的一场零和博弈。但它确实意味着，正如我们上周指出的，世界其他地区需要把它看作一项地缘战略计划，各国应该根据本国的地缘战略愿景应对。这首先适用于中国尝试打造的轴线的另一端：欧洲国家和欧盟(EU)。