普京：加大对朝制裁没有意义
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)抨击了美国和韩国加强对朝鲜制裁的尝试，并补充道，平壤宁可“吃草”，也不会就这么放弃核武计划。
Speaking after the US asked the UN to impose stronger sanctions against a North Korea that Washington says is “begging for war”, Mr Putin argued that “military hysteria” could lead to global catastrophe.
普京的讲话是在美国要求联合国(UN)对华盛顿所称的“乞求战争”的朝鲜实施更严厉制裁之后发表的。普京表示，“军事歇斯底里”可能导致全球灾难。
The Russian president’s call for an increased focus on diplomacy not only reduces the prospect of punitive UN sanctions in response to Pyongyang’s biggest nuclear test to date but could also be intended to drive a wedge between Washington and South Korea. Seoul has said it would begin lobbying the UN to staunch North Korea’s oil supply but is more alarmed about the risk of military action than is Donald Trump’s administration.
俄罗斯总统呼吁要更加重视外交，这不仅降低了联合国针对平壤迄今最大当量的核试验出台惩罚性制裁的可能性，还有可能是有意制造美国和韩国之间的分歧。首尔方面已表示，将开始游说联合国切断朝鲜的石油供应，但韩国政府比唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)政府更担心军事行动的风险。
“The sanctions regime has run its course, it is ineffective,” Mr Putin said at a press conference at a Brics summit in Xiamen, China.
“制裁制度已经走到了头，它是无效的，”普京在中国厦门金砖国家峰会的一个新闻发布会上说。
“They will rather eat grass in North Korea than abandon this programme unless they feel safe . . . And what can ensure safety? The application of international law.”
“朝鲜人宁可吃草也不会放弃这个计划，除非他们感到安全……而什么能确保安全呢?应用国际法。”
The Russian president argues North Korea’s leadership is acting rationally in continuing to pursue its weapons programme, since Iraq and Libya — both regimes that gave up their nuclear ambitions — were ultimately toppled by the US and its allies.
普京辩称，朝鲜领导层推进其武器计划是一种理性的行为，因为伊拉克和利比亚这两个放弃核武野心的政权最终都被美国及其盟友推翻。
“Everyone remembers well what happened with Iraq and with Saddam Hussein. Hussein gave up the production of weapons of mass destruction . . . And they also know and remember that well in North Korea,” Mr Putin said. “And you think that North Korea will abandon [its course] because of some sanctions?”
“大家都清楚地记得伊拉克和萨达姆•侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)的下场。侯赛因放弃了生产大规模杀伤性武器……朝鲜人也知道这一点，并且记得清清楚楚，”普京说，“你认为朝鲜会因为一些制裁而放弃(它的道路)吗?”
Moscow has been trying to balance criticism of Pyongyang with criticism of the US and South Korea, and believes that only tacit acknowledgment of North Korea as a de facto nuclear power can bring the crisis under control.
莫斯科一直在批评平壤与批评美国和韩国之间试图达到平衡，并且认为只有默认朝鲜的事实核武国家地位，才能让这场危机得到控制。
Russia’s scepticism about sanctions is shared by China, North Korea’s fellow Communist neighbour and largest trading partner by far, which fears the collapse of the Pyongyang regime and the humanitarian and geopolitical chaos that could ensue.
中国也和俄罗斯一样，对制裁抱怀疑态度。作为朝鲜的共产党邻国和遥遥领先的最大贸易伙伴，中国惧怕平壤政权崩溃以及可能随之而来的人道主义和地缘政治乱局。
But South Korea, whose spy agency believes a further North Korean long-range missile test is imminent, is, like the US, seeking to step up UN measures against Pyongyang.
但韩国情报机构认为，朝鲜很快就会进行又一次远程导弹试射，韩国和美国一样，希望联合国加大对平壤制裁力度。
“It’s time for the United Nations Security Council to seriously consider ways to block North Korea’s sources of foreign currency, including a halt to oil supplies to the North and a ban on its exportation of labourers,” Moon Jae-in, South Korea’s president, was quoted by his office as saying.
“联合国安理会(UN Security Council)是时候认真考虑切断北韩外汇来源的办法了，包括停止向北韩供应石油和禁止北韩输出劳务，”韩国总统办公室援引总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)的话称。
Last month, the Security Council unanimously imposed tough new sanctions on the Kim regime, banning its export of coal, iron and lead in a move that could slash Pyongyang’s $3bn export revenue.
上月，联合国安理会一致通过对金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政权实施新一轮严厉制裁，禁止该国出口煤炭、铁和铅，此举可能大幅减少朝鲜每年30亿美元的出口收入。
“Trade is the single most important source of foreign currency for the North Korean regime,” said Professor Byung-Yeon Kim, an authority on the North Korean economy at Seoul National University.
“贸易是北韩政权获得外汇的一条最重要的渠道，”首尔大学(Seoul National University)的朝鲜经济问题权威金炳连(Kim Byung-yeon)教授说。
“Given a high profit margin of mineral exports, the new sanctions might decrease North Korea’s hard currency revenue by more than one-third. This would be a substantial hindrance to the regime’s nuclear and missile weapons programme.”
“鉴于矿物出口的利润率很高，新制裁也许会使北韩的硬通货收入减少逾三分之一。这将对北韩政权发展核武及导弹武器计划构成重大障碍。”
Prof Kim noted, however, that for sanctions to be effective China “must be on board”.
但金炳连教授指出，若想让制裁产生效果，中国“必须加入进来”。
Tong Zhao, an expert on Korean affairs at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre for Global Policy in Beijing, said “there is no reason why China would not take additional actions” given the “serious provocation by North Korea”.
北京清华-卡内基全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy)的朝鲜问题专家赵通表示，鉴于“朝鲜的严重挑衅行为”，“中国没有理由不采取进一步行动”。
“But in terms of what specifically China would do, there are less radical measures than an oil embargo,” he said. “For example, a cutback on North Korean labourers allowed into China, or cuts on North Korean exports would be more likely.”
“但在中国具体会采取何种措施方面，存在与石油禁运相比不那么激进的举措，”他说，“比如，削减允许进入中国的朝鲜劳务输出人员人数，或者削减朝鲜出口，这样的措施更有可能。”
