中国的“茶壶”炼油厂谋求抱团求生
中国独立炼油厂的合并计划，是中国日益加剧的炼油产能过剩带来的压力的最新表现。产能过剩引发市场份额争夺战，也让人们等待已久的石油行业开放陷入不确定。
China’s annual refining capacity is set to reach 808m tonnes by the end of 2017, about 16 per cent of the world’s capacity and just behind the US’s more than 900m. Within the next three to five years, industry experts expect China to overtake the US as the world’s largest oil refining nation.
到2017年底，中国的年炼油产能将达到8.08亿吨，约占世界产能的16%，仅次于美国的逾9亿吨。在接下来3到5年，行业专家预计中国将取代美国成为世界最大炼油国。
Refining capacity in China has increased 44 per cent from 2011, even as economic growth began showing signs of slowing. That has led to a widening discrepancy between China’s ability to produce refined oil and its demand for refined products.
自2011年以来，虽然经济增长开始出现放缓迹象，中国的炼油产能却增长了44%。这导致中国精炼油产能与成品油需求之间的差距日益扩大。
Part of the rapid growth is due to smaller independent refineries, known as “teapots”, many of which operate large and complex plants. Some of the major teapots are now merging into one conglomerate, the Shandong Refining Energy Group — a plan approved last week by the Shandong government.
中国炼油产能的快速增长，部分归功于规模较小、被称为“茶壶”的独立炼油厂。许多“茶壶”炼油厂运营着大型综合工厂。一些主要的“茶壶”炼油厂现在将合并为一家企业集团——山东炼化能源集团(Shandong Refining Energy Group)。上周，该计划已获山东政府部门批准。
The teapots are clustered in the province of Shandong, known for its tolerance of private enterprise. Hopes that they would be allowed to freely compete in a national oil market dominated by state-owned refiners such as PetroChina and Sinopec rose when they were formally allowed to import crude oil two years ago.
“茶壶”炼油厂集中分布在以对民营企业宽容而著称的山东省。两年前，这些炼油厂被正式批准进口原油的时候，人们燃起了这样的希望：这些炼油厂未来会获准在中国石油市场上，与主导市场的中石油(PetroChina)和中石化(SinoPec)等国有炼油企业自由竞争。
Access to imported crude oil helped compensate for the effects of the anti-corruption purge that has swept the country’s oil industry over the past four years. Previously, crude from state-operated oilfields often “leaked” to the teapots; the purge cut off some of that illicit supply while a prolonged drop in global oil prices has shuttered some high-cost domestic fields.
获准进口原油有助于抵消过去4年席卷中国石油行业的反腐整肃行动带来的影响。此前，国营油田的原油经常“渗漏”到“茶壶”炼油厂那里;整肃行动切断了一些不正当渠道的供应，而全球油价的长期下滑也使一些高成本的国内油田关闭。
Once they could import, the teapots’ production increased, allowing them to double their Chinese market share to 30 per cent over the past two years. Their improved performance has come at the expense of the state-owned oil groups, which have spent billions in recent years upgrading and expanding their refineries. It has also left the teapots burdened with heavy debt.
获准进口后，“茶壶”炼油厂的产量随之增加，使它们得以在过去两年实现在中国市场上所占份额翻番、达到30%。这些炼油厂的市场份额增加，意味着国有石油集团的市场份额减少，后者近年来已花费数十亿升级和扩建自己的炼油厂。为实现产量增加，“茶壶”炼油厂也背上了沉重的债务。
But this year there has been an apparent policy reversal, calling into question Beijing’s commitment to liberalising the oil sector amid a broader ideological swing in favour of state-owned companies. The teapots’ export quotas were cut off, trapping their output in China. Their crude import quotas also have been issued less consistently than last year.
但今年出现了明显的政策逆转，在意识形态朝着有利于国企的方向倾斜的整体形势下，政策的逆转令北京方面开放石油行业的承诺遭到质疑。“茶壶”炼油厂的出口配额被砍掉，它们的产出只能困在国内。对这些炼油厂的进口配额发放也不如去年那么稳定。
“It’s a bit confusing what China wants to do because on the one hand it is very keen to reduce excess capacity,” said Mriganka Jaipuriyar, of S&P Global Platts, an energy data provider. The government is still offering independent refiners crude import quotas, while cutting off their access to export markets, she said.
“中国的意图让人有点看不明白，因为一方面来说，中国非常希望减少过剩的产能。”能源数据提供商标准普尔全球普氏(S&P Global Platts)的姆里冈卡•贾伊普里亚尔(Mriganka Jaipuriyar)说。她说，中国政府依然给独立炼油厂发放进口配额，但又同时切断了它们进入出口市场的渠道。
The result is rising stocks of refined fuel trapped in the country, triggering a rare retail price battle led by China’s two big state-owned oil enterprises, Sinopec and PetroChina. The pair are seeking higher export quotas for the fourth quarter, with fuel exports up 9 per cent so far this year.
结果是困在国内的成品油库存上升，导致中国两大油企——中石化和中石油带头发动了一场罕见的零售价格战。这两家企业正寻求在第四季度获得更高的出口配额，中国成品油今年迄今累计出口已增长9%。
Adding to the glut is the output from large plants that produce refined fuel from coal, at cheaper cost than even the teapots can manage.
生产煤制油的大精炼厂的产出加剧了供应过剩，这类精炼厂的成本甚至比“茶壶”炼油厂更低廉。
The pressure explains the independent refineries’ drive to consolidate, using the favoured Chinese argument that large-and-indebted ‘champions’ are preferable to competition among smaller players. The large debt of the new Shandong Refining Energy conglomerate may ironically serve as protection for the teapots, giving banks and local governments a stake in their survival.
这种压力解释了独立炼油厂为什么想要整合，这其中的逻辑是在中国流行的一种说法：比起一群规模较小的市场参与者相互竞争，负债累累的大型“冠军”企业更可取。讽刺的是，新成立的山东炼化能源集团的大额债务可能会成为这些“茶壶”炼油厂的保护伞，因为它们的存亡将事关银行和地方政府的利益。
“A massive shutdown of the teapots is unlikely, though some smaller ones are facing difficulties,” said Liao Na, vice-president of energy consultancy ICIS China.
“‘茶壶’炼油厂大面积倒闭不太可能发生，尽管一些较小的‘茶壶’炼油厂正面临困境。”能源咨询机构安迅思(ICIS China)副总裁廖娜表示。
