香港股市呈现A股特点
当中国工信部副部长本月表示北京正在考虑制定传统燃油车禁售时间表时，多数汽车业专家都没有作出过度反应。这名官员并没有给出具体时间表，而英国、法国等富裕国家已经制定了2040年的遥远最后期限。
Judging by the market reaction in Hong Kong, however, investors could be forgiven for thinking the statement was a bombshell. Shares in BYD, China’s largest producer of electric vehicles, surged to a record that day and are up more than 60 per cent this month.
不过根据香港市场的反应，无怪乎投资者觉得上述声明是个爆炸性消息。中国最大的电动汽车生产商比亚迪(BYD)的股价在当天飙升至新高，本月涨幅超过60%。
After BYD’s chairman speculated China’s deadline could be 2030 — in what experts said was more of a lobbying effort than a prediction — shares in the group’s separately listed mobile-handset unit also hit a record, despite the fact the company is not even involved in cars.
随着比亚迪董事长猜测中国的最后期限可能是2030年——专家表示这更多是一个游说行为而不是一个预测——该集团旗下另一家上市手机公司的股价也创下纪录，尽管该公司甚至不涉及汽车行业。
Speculative zeal for BYD is an example of what many investors say is the increasing influence of mainland investors in Hong Kong’s market. The opening of the Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect in late 2014, which was followed by the launch of the companion Shenzhen Connect in November 2016, granted mainland punters unprecedented access to the territory’s market.
市场对比亚迪的投机热情是一个例证，证明了许多投资者所说的内地投资者对香港市场的影响力日益增加。2014年底开通的沪港通让内地投资者得以以前所未有的方式进入香港市场，随后2016年11月又推出了深港通。
“It is very much the case that HK’s market is becoming more like China’s and not the other way around,” says Howard Ho, Asian equities analyst at Maple Brown Abbott, a Sydney-based investment manager.
总部位于悉尼的投资管理公司Maple-Brown Abbott亚洲股票分析师Howard Ho表示：“实际上香港市场正变得更像内地，而不是反过来。”
Trendy investment storylines such as information technology and clean energy have long driven the popularity of so-called “concept stocks” in the retail-driven Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, home of A shares, as China’s domestically listed stocks are known.
信息科技和清洁能源等热门投资主题长期推动着所谓的“概念股”在散户主导的沪深股市的人气。中国内地上市的股票俗称A股，在沪深股市交易。
Market watchers say that high valuations for recent Hong Kong initial public offerings such as selfie app Meitu and online insurer ZhongAn Online Property and Casualty Insurance are due in part to the expectation of strong demand from mainland investors.
市场观察人士表示，近期如自拍应用美图(Meitu)、网络保险公司众安在线财产保险股份有限公司(ZhongAn Online Property and Casualty Insurance)等公司在香港市场首次公开发行(IPO)之所以有很高的估值，一部分是因为预期内地投资者的强劲需求。
“The big winners this year all show very strong characteristics of momentum trading, which is a hallmark of A-share strategy,” says Hao Hong, head of research for Bocom International in Hong Kong. “Some of these stocks have doubled or even more. Things like this don’t happen very easily in Hong Kong, but they tend to happen with names in the A-share market where there’s a story to go with it. They’re concept stocks.”
香港交银国际(Bocom International)研究主管洪灏表示：“今年的大赢家都显示出极强的动量交易特征，这是典型的A股策略。其中部分股票涨了一倍甚至更多。这种事在香港不容易发生，但在A股市场往往发生在有故事的股票身上，它们就是概念股。”
Volatility is also increasing. In the 708 trading days since the Shanghai connect was launched, a CES Stock Connect Hong Kong Select 100 Index that tracks 100 Hong Kong shares available to mainland investors through the scheme rose or fell by an average of 0.76 percentage points each day. In the same period before the connect launch, the average change was 0.67 percentage points.
港股的波动也在加大。自沪港通启动后的708个交易日，追踪内地投资者通过该计划可购买的100只港股的“中华港股通精选100指数”(CES Hong Kong Select 100 Index)，日均涨跌幅为0.76%。而在沪港通启动前的历史同期，日均涨跌幅为0.67%。
The extraordinary performance of China real estate shares this year, led by developers China Evergrande and Sunac China, also resembles the wild swings associated with A shares. Sunac is up 391 per cent on the year through Tuesday, while Evergrande has gained 439 per cent. 以中国恒大(China Evergrande)和融创中国(Sunac China)为首的中国房地产股今年的异常表现，也显示出类似A股的
剧烈波动。今年截至周二，融创中国的股价已经上涨391%，而恒大股价上涨了439%。
But the same investors who piled in to property shares since the start of the year suddenly reversed course this week, after eight major cities imposed new sales restrictions, as governments seek to curb runaway prices. Sunac sank 8 per cent on Monday, while Evergrande shed 9 per cent.
然而，自今年初纷纷涌入房地产股的那些投资者本周突然改变了策略，因为此前，在各级政府试图抑制房价失控飞涨之际，内地8个主要城市纷纷出台了新的限售措施。周一，融创中国股价下挫8%，恒大跌掉9%。
“Fund movement between the A-shares and Hong Kong markets has become more convenient, which has led to a blending of the two markets’ different styles to some extent,” says Huang Xiaoming, partner at Preston Asset Management, a Shanghai-based quant fund that invests in both markets. “The Hong Kong market’s short-term volatility and speculative elements have increased.”
易善资产管理有限公司(Preston Asset Management)合伙人黄晓明表示：“A股与港股市场之间的资金流动已变得更加便捷，这导致了某种程度上两大市场之间不同风格的融合。港股市场的短期波动和投机因素有所增加。”这家位于上海的量化对冲基金公司在A股和港股市场都进行投资。
For Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng index, annualised volatility — a gauge of how much an asset’s value is likely to move up or down in a year — was 21.5 per cent and 18.5 per cent in 2015 and 2016, respectively, even as the same figures for the MSCI World Index were lower at 15.6 and 15 per cent, according to Preston.
易善资产管理的数据显示，2015年和2016年，香港基准恒生指数(Hang Seng Index)的年化波动率——衡量一项资产的价值一年内可能上涨或下跌多少的指标——分别为21.5%和18.5%，而MSCI明晟全球指数(MSCI World index)同期的年化波动率分别为15.6%和15%。
Mainland investors’ share of trading volume in Hong Kong is increasing. Trading through the connect schemes accounted for an average of 11.9 per cent of total turnover this month through September 25, compared with 10.3 per cent on average in the first eight months of this year.
内地投资者在港股交易量中的份额正在扩大。9月1日至9月25日，通过沪港通、深港通进行的交易平均占总交易量的11.9%，而今年前8个月平均为10.3%。
Mainland investors operating through the connect programme now own at least 10 per cent of 53 Hong Kong-listed shares, according to data from Wind Information. For both Sunac and Great Wall Motor, China’s fifth-largest carmaker by revenue, the figure is 23 per cent.
万得资讯(Wind Information)的数据显示，通过沪港通、深港通操作的内地投资者，目前持有53只香港上市股票的至少10%份额。对于融创中国以及按收入算中国第五大汽车制造商长城汽车(Great Wall Motor)来说，这一数字为23%。
Mr Hong also points out that Hong Kong’s same-day settlement mechanism allows for intraday buying and selling of the same tranche of shares, unlike in the mainland, where settlement occurs after one day. That makes Hong Kong a tempting playground for day traders.
洪灏还指出，香港的T+0交易制度允许在同一天内买卖同一只股票，而不像内地那样只能在之后的一个交易日交割。这使得香港成为对当日交易者颇具诱惑力的市场。
