FT社评：2018年欧洲一体化的前景

Twelve months ago, the theme of the year ahead in Europe promised to be anti-establishment electoral threats to the temperate democracies that had prospered in the continent’s western half since the late 1940s. In the event, to the extent that these threats emanated from rightwing radicals and populists, they were kept in check or defeated (but by no means crushed) in most countries.

欧洲在12个月前迎来的2017年主题，显然是那些自上世纪40年代末以来在整个西欧繁荣发展的温和民主国家所面临的“反建制”选举威胁。结果，在大多数国家，这些由右翼极端分子和民粹主义者带来的威胁或是被控制住，或是被击败(但绝非被彻底击溃)。

The most acute challenges to Europe’s established political order turned out to be the least expected. On the positive side, these included Emmanuel Macron’s reformist insurgency, which swept aside France’s putrescent party political system and catapulted him to the Elysée Palace. On the negative side, they included a Catalan separatist movement that made a reckless thrust for secession from Spain, winning regional elections as the year came to a close.

欧洲既有政治秩序所遭遇的最严峻挑战，最终却是那些最让人意想不到的。从好的一面来看，这些挑战包括埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)的改革主义异军突起，不但横扫法国腐朽的党政制度，还把马克龙送入爱丽舍宫。从不好的一面来看，这些挑战还有加泰罗尼亚的分裂主义运动，他们搞了一次试图从西班牙分离出去的鲁莽尝试，在临近年末的时候在地方选举中获得了胜利。

In January 2018, it is less obvious what the big theme of the year will be. Some of those who believe Europe truly turned a corner in 2017 would like this to be the year when the EU takes decisive steps forward in its 60-year effort at closer unity. They contend that the geopolitical outlook makes such steps advisable, even essential.

到了2018年1月，新一年的主题就没那么明显了。不少人认为欧洲在2017年委实度过了一个难关，其中一些人希望，2018年欧盟(EU)能在持续60年的一体化事业上采取果断举措向前迈进。他们认为，考虑到地缘政治前景，这类举措不但是明智的，甚至也是必要的。

According to this world view, China is on the rise. Russia is truculent. North Africa and the Middle East are in ferment. Even before President Donald Trump introduced his brand of wayward foreign policy, the future of US-European relations was becoming unpredictable. Integration is needed to strengthen the EU and make it a counterweight to the world’s great powers.

根据这种世界观，中国正在崛起。俄罗斯本性好斗。北非和中东动荡不安。在美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)开始实施他标志性的反复无常的外交政策之前，美欧关系的未来就已经变得很不可预测了。欧盟要变得更强、成为可以抗衡世界各大国的力量，融合势在必行。

Such ambitions are associated above all with Mr Macron, who speaks of the need for Europe to develop “grand narratives” and “a kind of political heroism”. His words are easily mocked as pretentious waffle, but in the age of Mr Trump and Brexit they deserve more mature consideration in the English-speaking world. Nothing illustrates the EU’s new-found seriousness of purpose better than the launch in November of a defence and security initiative known as Permanent Structured Co-operation, or Pesco. Some 25 EU states have signed up to it.

这些雄心首先与马克龙息息相关，他谈到欧洲需要“宏大叙事”和“一种政治英雄主义”。他的言论很容易被嘲笑为自命不凡的夸夸其谈，但在这个特朗普当选美国总统和英国退欧的时代，这些话值得英语世界的人们深思熟虑。11月达成的一项国防安全倡议——“永久结构性合作”(Permanent Structured Co-operation，简称Pesco)就是欧盟新近认真对待自己目标的最佳写照。有25个欧盟成员国签署了这项协议。

Likewise there are reasonable grounds to expect progress in 2018 on the economic and financial front. The 19 eurozone states talk of completing the EU’s banking union and of reshaping its crisis-fighting European Stability Mechanism into a European Monetary Fund. For the moment, it is questionable if the Germans, French and others agree on the details. But both objectives are desirable and achievable. In addition, the EU should ensure it does not neglect its self-appointed task of creating a capital markets union.

同样，人们有理由期待2018年在经济和金融方面取得进展。19个欧元区国家正在讨论建成欧盟银行业联盟，并将旨在应对危机的欧洲稳定机制(European Stability Mechanism)重塑为欧洲货币基金(European Monetary Fund)。德国、法国及其它国家是否会在细节上达成一致还未可知，但这两个目标都是可取的、也是可以实现的。另外，欧盟应确保自身不会忽视其自许的创建一个资本市场联盟的使命。

Policymakers will need to apply a measure of realism when setting their sights on a more efficient, united EU. No election scheduled for 2018 is likely to be as portentous in its implications as last year’s French and German polls. But the Italian, Hungarian and Swedish elections to be held between March and September may see strong performances from conservative nationalists, anti-immigrant populists and other unconventional forces. Across Europe these forces plan to put a large spanner in the EU’s works in the 2019 European Parliament elections.

当政策制定者们着眼于建设更高效、更团结的欧盟时，他们需要抱持一定的现实主义态度。2018年没有一场选举会像去年法国和德国的选举那样意义重大，但在意大利、匈牙利和瑞典于今年3月至9月间将举行的选举中，我们将有可能目睹保守民族主义者、反移民民粹主义者及其他非传统势力的强劲表现。在整个欧洲，这些势力准备在2019年的欧洲议会(European Parliament)选举中给欧盟的工作造成巨大阻碍。

The path to EU unity is strewn with other obstacles. Northern and southern Europe hold different views on EU integration. More alarming are the acerbic disagreements between western and much of eastern Europe over democracy, the rule of law and migration. With the UK on its way out of the EU, these disputes are emerging as the most formidable barrier of all to a closer union of the 27 remaining states.

欧盟一体化道路还存在着其他障碍。北欧和南欧对欧盟一体化持不同看法。更令人担心的是西欧国家和部分东欧国家在民主、法治及移民问题上存在着尖锐的分歧。英国已走在离开欧盟的路上，这些分歧将成为欧盟剩余27个成员国建立更紧密联盟最难以逾越的障碍。