“文金会”落幕，现在看特朗普的了

SEOUL, South Korea — Rush-hour in South Korea’s over-caffeinated capital runs at a frenzy — so it was remarkable to see commuters freeze Friday morning and fixate on giant Samsung television screens showing the scene unfolding in the Demilitarized Zone, where time stopped in 1953.

韩国首尔——在咖啡因摄入过量的韩国首都，交通高峰时段总是那么疯狂，所以周五上午的情景格外引人注目——通勤族停下脚步，目不转睛地注视着着巨大的三星电视屏幕，上面播放着非军事区正在发生的情景，在那个地方，时光还停留在1953年。

Kim Jong-un, in a black Mao suit, stepped across a low concrete barrier into the South Korean territory, a first for a North Korean leader since the catastrophic and unfinished war seven decades ago. He reached out to the South’s president, Moon Jae-in, and led him back over into the North’s territory.

金正恩(Kim Jong-un)穿着黑色中山装，跨过低矮的混凝土屏障进入韩国领土，自70年前那场迄今尚未结束的灾难性战争以来，这是朝鲜领导人第一次这样做。他向韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)伸出手，领着他回到朝鲜领土。

It was a reminder, if anyone here needed one, that the 34-year-old Mr. Kim has played the master choreographer in this remarkable dance step along a nuclear precipice.

这是一种提醒——如果还有人需要提醒的话——34岁的金正恩在这场核悬崖上的精彩舞蹈中扮演了主要编舞者的角色。

Mr. Kim silenced those who thought he was too young and callow to rule by executing his uncle, fatally poisoning a half brother, installing his own generals and putting North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs into overdrive.

金正恩处决了他的叔叔，毒死了他的异母哥哥，安插了自己的将军，令朝鲜的核武器与导弹加速发展，让那些认为他年轻稚嫩，无法统治国家的人闭上了嘴。

And after spending 2017 proving that his backward nation could hurl missiles across the Pacific, and could test a weapon many times more powerful than the Hiroshima atomic bomb, Mr. Kim seized on an invitation from South Korea to take part in the 2018 Winter Olympics and suddenly played the statesman. On Friday he hinted anew that his nuclear arsenal might be on the table, if the price was right.

金正恩用整个2017年证明自己统治的这个落后国家有能力发射飞越太平洋的导弹，并且有能力测试威力超出广岛原子弹许多倍的武器;之后他应韩国邀请，参与2018年冬季奥运会，突然扮演起政治家的角色。周五他再次暗示，如果价码合适，他的核武库或许也是可以谈判的。

President Trump insists that his own actions are responsible, that his threats of “fire and fury” and, more important, his intensified sanctions, forced Mr. Kim to this moment. He is partly right: Mr. Trump has shown an energy in confronting North Korea that President Barack Obama never did.

特朗普总统坚称是自己的行为起了作用，他的“炮火与怒火”威胁，更重要的是他加紧制裁的行动，迫使金正恩走到了这一刻。他在一定程度上是正确的：特朗普表现出了与朝鲜对抗的能量，这是贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统从来不曾做过的。

But disarmament experts who watched the Korean leaders meet in the DMZ agreed that Mr. Kim had been driving the events.

但是观看朝韩领导人在非军事区举行会议的裁军专家都认为，一直在推动这些事件的人是金正恩。

Mr. Kim has learned the art of surprise as surely as his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, North Korea’s founder and the younger Mr. Kim’s role model, did. The elder Mr. Kim caught the world unawares by invading the South in June 1950.

朝鲜开国元勋金日成是金正恩的祖父，也是这位年轻人的榜样，显然，和金日成一样，金正恩也学会了出奇制胜的艺术——1950年6月，金日成入侵韩国，令全世界措手不及。

The Friday encounter did everything it was supposed to do to set up the next summit meeting, between Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump. That is the moment, South Koreans say, for any nuclear deal to be struck, something that can only happen when an American president is in the room.

周五的会晤完成了它所应完成的一切任务，为金正恩和特朗普之间的下一次首脑会议做好了准备。韩国人说，现在到了这样一个时刻，任何核协议都有可能达成，而这样的协议只有在美国总统在场时才会发生。

The question is whether Mr. Kim is really ready to make that deal, or whether he is betting, as most experts think he is, that he can get help to normalize the North’s economy while keeping at least parts of a fearsome arsenal that he believes has kept the Kim family in power.

问题是，金正恩是否真的准备达成这笔交易，又或者他像大多数专家认为的那样，是在下赌注，看自己是否能在令朝鲜实现经济正常化的同时，至少保留一部分令人生畏的武器，他认为金氏家族可以一直掌握权力正是因为这些武器。

The agreement published on Friday afternoon, as the two Korean leaders headed into a dinner that was rich in symbolism about the common traditions of the North and South, says little on the nuclear topic.

周五下午，朝韩两国领导人出席了一场充满两国共同传统象征意义的晚宴，并公布了会谈协议，其中几乎没有提及核问题。

It sets a deadline of completing some kind of peace arrangement — not necessarily a treaty — by the end of this year. But it sets no schedule for denuclearization. That is a critical point, because until now the Trump administration’s position has been that the North must surrender all its weapons first, and that any talk of treaties or trade, or sanctions relief, would come only when its weapons, its uranium and plutonium and its missiles are securely out of the country.

协议设定了一个最后期限，在今年年底之前达成某种和平协议——不一定是一项条约。但它没有设定无核化的时间表。这很关键，因为到目前为止，特朗普政府的立场是，朝鲜必须首先交出它的所有武器，任何关于条约、贸易或解除制裁的谈判只有在朝鲜的武器、铀和钚以及导弹安全出国后才能进行。

President Moon’s advisers insisted that the vagueness of the agreement published on Friday was a virtue, not a defect, and that it would be up to others to work out the details. But they also insist that “Chairman Kim,” as they called the young leader, is driven by different imperatives than his father and grandfather were. “They want a Trump Tower and a McDonald’s,” Moon Chung-in, a special adviser to the South Korean president, insisted in an interview with Christiane Amanpour on CNN on Friday.

文在寅总统的顾问坚称，星期五公布的协议含糊不清是它的优点，而不是缺点，而细节需要其他人来填补。但他们也坚持认为，“金主席”(他们这样称呼年轻的朝鲜领导人)，和他的父亲与祖父有着不同的动机。“他们想要一个特朗普大厦和一家麦当劳餐厅，”韩国总统的特别顾问文正仁(Moon Chung-in)周五接受CNN的克里斯汀·阿曼普(Christiane Amanpour)采访时表示。

Perhaps they do — the North’s most famous hotel, in Pyongyang, the capital, leans so dangerously that it was never opened, and North Korea is not known for its fast-food chains. But ask the people who have seen past peace initiatives whether they think this one will work out any differently, and they have serious doubts that Mr. Kim will give up his nuclear program for any price.

兴许确实如此——朝鲜最著名的酒店(位于首都平壤)倾斜严重，以至从未开业，朝鲜也没有著名的快餐连锁。但问那些见证了过去的和平协议的人是否认为这一次的结果会有所不同时，他们严重怀疑金正恩无论如何都不会放弃核计划。

Among the skeptics is Mr. Trump’s new secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, who made a secret visit to Pyongyang over Easter weekend to try to gauge Mr. Kim’s sincerity. Last summer, it was Mr. Pompeo, then still the C.I.A. director, who argued that the only way to deal with North Korea was to separate Mr. Kim from his weapons, a comment some interpreted as advocating regime change.

持怀疑态度的人包括特朗普新任命的国务卿克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)。复活节那个周末，庞皮欧秘密访问平壤，想要试探金正恩的诚意。去年夏天，正是时任中情局(CIA)局长的庞皮欧声称，对付朝鲜唯一的办法是把金正恩和他的武器分开。这番表述被一些人解读为主张改朝换代。

On Friday at NATO, on his first full day as secretary of state, Mr. Pompeo suggested for the first time that the North Korean leader was ready to deal. “I did get a sense that he was serious,” he told reporters. “The economic pressure that has been put in place by this global effort that President Trump has led has led him to believe that it’s in his best interest to come to the table and talk about denuclearization.”

周五是庞皮欧上任国务卿的第一天。在北约，他首次称朝鲜领导人做好了做交易的准备。“我的确感觉他是认真的，”他对记者说。“特朗普总统领导的这场全球行动带来的经济压力促使他相信，坐到谈判桌上商讨无核化问题对他是最有利的。”

Yet talking is different from denuclearizing. And talking about denuclearizing is hardly new. The North promised the same in a 1992 agreement, and many in Seoul, the South’s capital, wondered then if the nightmare of living under the constant threat of artillery barrage was about to end. In fact, the agreement reached on Friday picks up language from the 1992 accord, and has similar provisions about reuniting families separated during the Korean War and nonaggression agreements. Little of it happened.

但商讨和无核化是两回事。商讨无核化问题也不是什么新鲜事。在1992年的一项协议中，朝鲜作出过同样的承诺。当时，韩国首都首尔的很多人好奇，生活在持续的炮火攻击威胁下的噩梦是不是就要结束了。实际上，周五达成的协议采用了1992年那份协议的表述，也有让那些因朝鲜战争而分开的家人团圆，以及达成互不侵犯协议的类似条款。但当年的协议内容几乎无一兑现。

There were two agreements with the George W. Bush administration, each described at the time as breakthroughs. Since then the North has amassed 20 to 60 nuclear weapons, up from zero when those commitments were made.

朝鲜与乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)政府达成了两项协议。当时，两项协议都被称作突破性进展。自那时以来，朝鲜已经积累了20到60枚核武器，而它作出这些承诺时这个数字是零。

No one knows those numbers better than Mr. Pompeo, who spent a lot of time with the CI.A.’s Korea Mission unit, assessing the scope and imminence of its nuclear capabilities. “There’s a lot of history here, where promises have been made, hopes have been raised and then dashed,” the new secretary of state told reporters.

没人比庞皮欧更了解这些数字。他曾和中情局朝鲜任务中心一起花大量时间评估朝鲜核实力的范围和紧迫性。“在这个问题上，有着漫长的作出承诺、燃起希望然后希望破灭的历史，”这位新上任的国务卿对记者说。

Mr. Trump’s solution to not getting “played,” the phrase he so often uses about his predecessors and North Korea, is to keep what he calls a “maximum pressure campaign” on the North until denuclearization happens. The South Koreans say they agree. But the documents issued Friday hint at benefits that begin to flow to the North as they move toward a peace agreement, and a reduction of tensions.

为了不被“玩弄”——特朗普常常用这个词来形容他的诸位前任与朝鲜的关系——特朗普的解决方案是坚持对朝鲜实行他所说的“最大压力行动”，直到实现无核化。韩国表示同意。但周五发布的文件暗示，在朝着和平协议的方向发展的过程中，好处开始流向朝鲜，紧张局势得到缓和。

China, which is largely interested in maintaining the status quo, could also loosen the restrictions on oil and goods, as long as negotiations play out. 只要谈判展开，在很大程度上希望保持现状的中国可能也会放松对石油和商品的限制。

All this suggests that Mr. Trump’s challenge when he meets Mr. Kim, probably in early June, is growing. He must establish the process for the actual dismantlement of weapons, the removal of stockpiled uranium and plutonium bomb fuel from the country and a verification program that will be one of the most complex in history, given the vastness of North Korea’s mountains.

这一切都表明，和金正恩会面——可能会在6月初——时，特朗普面临的挑战正在加剧。他必须制定实际拆除武器、运走朝鲜储存的铀和钚弹燃料并进行核查的进程。考虑到朝鲜辽阔的山川，这将是史上最复杂的核查行动之一。

In short, Mr. Trump must do better than Mr. Obama did in the Iran deal, an agreement Mr. Trump believes is so flawed it should be abandoned.

简而言之，特朗普必须比奥巴马在伊朗核协议问题上做得更好。特朗普认为该协议缺陷严重，应该被废除。

What no one knows yet is the kind of concessions Kim is hoping to demand in return. Han Sung-joo, a former South Korean foreign minister who negotiated with the North for much of his career, says he believes he knows where this is headed.

但没人知道金正恩希望得到什么样的让步作为回报。韩国前外长韩升洲(Han Sung-Joo)职业生涯中的很多时候都在和朝鲜谈判。他自称知道事情会朝什么方向发展。

“If Kim Jong Un indeed came up with the idea of the so-called peace momentum getting started, it was indeed a jackpot of an idea,” Han said this week. Kim’s goals, Han said, will be to “weaken international sanctions,” draw serious investment into the North and make the country’s nuclear status “a fait accompli.”

“如果金正恩真的想到了开启所谓的和平进程这个主意，那也是为了这个主意能带来的好处，”韩升洲在本周说。他表示，金正恩的目标是“减轻国际制裁”、让大量投资进入朝鲜并让朝鲜的核地位成为“既成事实”。

Trump, in contrast, says he will solve the North Korea problem, once and for all. After Friday’s meeting, he will now face the task of explaining how.

相比之下，特朗普称他将彻底解决朝鲜问题。周五的会面结束后，他现在面临的任务是解释如何做到这一点。