特朗普关税将对中国产生什么影响？
上海——由于特朗普总统的关税，美国民众很快就要花更多的钱才能买到中国制造的各种商品，一些消费者最终可能会转而购买其他国家的东西。
For now, China can live with that.
眼下，中国可以承受这一点。
The tariffs the White House announced on Friday will have little immediate impact on China, despite the size of the $50 billion in goods involved and the invective the move set off from Chinese official news media. Mr. Trump’s tariffs are ultimately too small and narrowly targeted to seriously affect China’s nearly $13 trillion economy, which no longer depends so much on exports and can easily find other places besides the United States to sell its products. In some ways, they are even smaller than tariffs imposed by previous presidents.
白宫周五宣布征收的关税几乎不会对中国产生直接影响，尽管关税会影响500亿美元(约合3200亿元人民币)的商品，并引发了中国官方新闻媒体的抨击。特朗普的关税从根本上来说规模太小，目标太狭隘，无法对中国近13万亿美元的经济造成严重影响。中国经济不再那么依赖出口，并且轻而易举就能找到除美国之外的其他地方销售产品。在某些方面，这次关税规模甚至不及以前的总统征收的关税。
The tariffs could spread, of course. The United States has threatened to impose tariffs on $100 billion more in Chinese-made goods and could theoretically hit more than $500 billion in products, the total amount that Americans buy from China. China could retaliate with its own tariffs on the United States’ far smaller exports in the other direction across the Pacific, plus impose punitive measures against American companies doing business here.
当然，关税规模可能会扩大。美国威胁要对另外1000亿美元的中国商品征收关税，理论上可能会影响超过5000亿美元的产品。这相当于美国从中国进口的总额。中国可能会进行报复，对美国出口至太平洋对岸的商品——规模远小于进口——征收关税，并对在华开展业务的美国公司采取惩罚性措施。
Any measures carry the risk that they could disrupt the global supply chain in sudden and unexpected ways, or could damage confidence among investors in building factories and other businesses in either country. Already there are signs of strains in the global economy from the broader trade tensions, weakness that China and the United States are both better positioned to weather than other nations.
任何措施都有可能以突然的和意想不到的方式扰乱全球供应链，或损害投资者在两国设立工厂和其他企业的信心。已经有迹象表明，全球经济因更广泛的贸易紧张局势而承压，而中国和美国都比其他国家更有能力度过这种难关。
Still, the absence of immediate impact could also give both sides breathing room to calm down.
但没有造成直接影响也给了双方冷静下来的喘息空间。
Each has its reasons for ducking a fight. The United States may need China’s help to keep its uneasy peace with North Korea. Beijing has stickier issues, like breaking the country’s addiction to debt-fueled economic growth without hurting growth. Already some indicators show signs of a slowdown, though if it worsens significantly Beijing may find Mr. Trump’s tariffs could make a convenient scapegoat.
两国都有避免贸易战的理由。美国可能需要中国的帮助来维持与朝鲜暂时的和平。北京也有一些棘手的问题，比如在不损害经济增长的条件下打破中国对债务驱动的经济增长的依赖。已经有一些指标显示出了放缓的迹象，但如果情况严重恶化，中国政府可能会发现，特朗普的关税是一个现成的替罪羊。
China in particular risks being distracted. Its point person on tackling debt, a senior economic official named Liu He, has also been deeply involved in trade negotiations, though Chinese officials say Beijing has the bandwidth to handle both.
中国尤其面临精力被分散的风险。其负责解决债务问题的核心人物、高级经济官员刘鹤也深入参与了贸易谈判，但中国官员称，北京有能力应对这两方面的问题。
“The strain on the top leadership as it tries to fend off a trade war with the U.S. as well as de-risk China’s financial sector is considerable,” said Diana Choyleva, the chief economist with Enodo Economics, a London research firm specializing in China. “They cannot afford to drop the ball on either front.”
“中国高层领导人在努力避免与美国爆发贸易战和降低中国金融领域的风险时承受的压力相当大，”伦敦专门研究中国问题的研究公司伊诺多经济公司(Enodo Economics)的首席经济学家戴安娜·乔伊利瓦(Diana Choyleva)说。“两个阵地都不能出错。”
For both sides, the issue has become far more than a struggle over nuts-and-bolts economics. It has become a battle over which country will dominate the high-wage, high-skill industries of tomorrow. Washington and Beijing alike see those industries as essential to protecting national security and to creating jobs.
对双方来说，这个议题已经远非一场围绕具体的经济问题而展开的斗争。它已经成了围绕哪个国家会主宰未来高薪酬、高技术行业而爆发的一场战斗。华盛顿和北京都认为，这些行业对保护国家安全和创造就业机会至关重要。
The Trump administration is pushing hard for curbs on China’s $300 billion government program to bolster these industries, called Made in China 2025. Beijing aims to make the country a leader in the manufacturing of advanced products, including computer microchips and commercial aircraft. The Trump administration’s statement announcing tariffs managed to mention the Chinese industrial policy program no fewer than five times.
特朗普政府正在大力争取限制中国一个旨在扶持这些行业的政府计划。该计划名叫《中国制造2025》，涉及资金3000亿美元。北京的目标是让中国成为先进产品，包括计算机微芯片和商用飞机制造的领导者。在特朗普政府宣布征收关税的声明中，中国这项工业政策计划被提到不下五次。
But China appears just as determined to preserve the program. And the trade issue has become so high profile that the Chinese public has come to expect that Beijing will push back hard against the Trump administration’s trade measures.
但中国似乎也决心要维持这个计划。并且贸易问题变得如此广受关注，以至中国民众期待北京会大力回击特朗普政府的贸易措施。
“This pressure will be high,” said Tu Xinquan, the director of the China Institute of World Trade Organization Studies in Beijing. “There is no way to move back.”
“这种压力会很大，”北京的中国世界贸易组织研究院院长屠新泉表示。“没有后退的办法。”
While the American tariffs could hurt specific Chinese industries, they will probably do little to hit China’s overall growth.
尽管美国关税可能会对特定的中国行业造成伤害，但可能对中国的整体增长没多大影响。
Under the tariffs announced on Friday, American buyers must pay 25 percent of the wholesale cost of Chinese-made goods when they hit American docks. The tariffs will ultimately be levied on $50 billion worth of Chinese exports, including electric cars and aircraft navigational equipment.
按照周五宣布的关税，当中国制造的商品到达美国码头时，美国购买者必须要支付其批发成本的25%。美国最终将对价值500亿美元的中国出口商品加征关税，包括电动汽车和飞机导航设备。
While $50 billion sounds like a lot, that represents just 0.4 percent of the Chinese economy. The details suggest the impact may be even less.
尽管500亿美元听起来很多，但它只占中国经济的0.4%。相关细节表明，中国受到的影响可能更小。
The tariff level, 25 percent, is fairly small compared with those imposed by previous presidents. President Barack Obama put a 35 percent penalty on Chinese-made car- and light-truck tires during his first year in office, President George W. Bush imposed rates of as much as 30 percent on imported steel during his second year in office, while President Ronald Reagan imposed a 100 percent toll on some Japanese electronics near the end of his second term. All those were eventually dropped.
与前任总统曾经施加的关税相比，25%的关税水平相当低。贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统上任第一年期间，曾对中国生产的汽车及轻型卡车轮胎处以35%的处罚;乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)上任第二年时，对进口的钢材征收高达30%的关税;而罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)在其第二届任期即将结束时，对一些日本电子产品征收了100%的关税。上述所有关税最终都被取消。
Some American buyers of Chinese goods may simply choose to pay the newly imposed tariffs rather than find new suppliers elsewhere. Brad Setser, a Treasury official in the Obama administration who is now an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that China’s exports to the United States in the affected categories could easily be halved by the tariffs. But they would not disappear entirely, as some Chinese products would still be competitive in terms of cost.
一些购买中国商品的美国人可能会选择为新加征的关税付钱，而不是在别的地方找到新的供货商。奥巴马政府的财政部官员、现为外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)的经济学家布拉德·塞策(Brad Setser)表示，在受到影响的类目内的中国对美出口很容易减半，但不会完全消失，因为在成本方面，中国的一些商品仍然具有竞争力。
Some of the same goods could probably be sold to other countries at slightly lower prices, further limiting the effect on the Chinese economy, Mr. Setser said.
塞策说，一些同样的商品可能会以较为低廉的价格卖给其他国家，更进一步限制了关税对中国经济的影响。
Moreover, China’s exports could grow in other areas to offset any drop. Its exports to the United States are already increasing by more than $50 billion each year, and more than 90 percent of China’s exports to the United States are not covered by the tariffs.
此外，中国的出口可能在其他地区得到增长，抵消任何下滑。该国对美国的出口每年已经有超过500亿美元的增长，而且有超过90%的中国对美出口不在此次关税之列。
“Even with tariffs on one-tenth of total imports from China, overall imports from China would likely rise,” Mr. Setser said.
“尽管对来自中国进口商品的十分之一加征关税，来自中国的整体进口还是可能会增长，”塞策说。
The tariffs could have a longer-term effect on China, however.
然而，关税可能会对中国造成较为长期的影响。
Devised as essentially a pre-emptive strike against Chinese subsidies in the Made in China 2025 program, the Trump tariffs could limit eventual sales from these industries. And with the European Union also protesting the Made in China 2025 program, those exports to Europe could suffer, too.
特朗普关税的设计初衷，是用来作为对《中国制造2025》计划中中国补贴的先发制人的打击，该关税可能会最终限制来自这些行业的销售。而且由于欧盟也在抗议《中国制造2025》，那些出口到欧盟的商品也可能受到损失。
Longer term, the tariffs could spur American companies to move their factories elsewhere. But companies have been reluctant so far to move, as China’s world-class transportation system and well-trained work force still make it highly competitive in all but the lowest-skill, lowest-wage industries.
更长远来看，关税可能会引发美国公司将工厂搬到其他地方。但迄今为止，各家公司一直不愿意将工厂迁址，因为中国有着世界一流的交通体系以及训练有序的劳动力，这仍能让它在几乎最低端技术、最低薪水的行业中极具竞争力。
On the flip side, the tariffs could help the Chinese government take the heat if the broader economy starts to falter. The economy could slow further as Beijing intensifies debt reduction efforts. Chinese leaders could blame Washington for the slowdown instead.
另一方面，如果整体经济开始衰退，关税可以帮中国政府承受压力。随着北京加强削减债务的努力，中国经济可能进一步放缓。中国领导人可以将放缓的责任归咎于华盛顿。
While American and European business have long criticized China for not living up to its promises on trade, Chinese officials point to significant moves to free up its limits on foreign businesses since Mr. Trump was elected. These include the removal of what had been a 25 percent limit on foreign investment in Chinese banks. China also plans to lower its tariffs on imported cars.
尽管美国及欧洲企业一直批评中国没有实现在贸易方面的承诺，但中国官员指出，自特朗普被选为总统以来，中国采取了重大举措，放开对外国企业的限制。这些措施包括取消曾经对外国投资中国银行的25%限制。中国还计划要降低对进口汽车的关税。
“They’ve done the things they said,” said Andrew Polk, a co-founder of Trivium/China, a Beijing economic consulting firm. “You’ve got to give them that.”
“他们已经做到了曾经说过的话，”北京的经济咨询公司策伟(Trivium/China)的联合创始人安德鲁·波尔克(Andrew Polk)说。“这点你要认可。”
