在冠状病毒疫苗准备好之前，社会能走向正常吗?

在冠状病毒疫苗准备好之前，社会能走向正常吗?

President Trump asked Americans during Monday's coronavirus briefing to maintain their social distancing through the end of the month to bring the coronavirus under control.

特朗普总统在周一的冠状病毒简报会上要求美国人在月底保持他们的社交距离，以控制冠状病毒。

And if people really do observe the stay-at-home orders, models suggest that the epidemic could wane by summer. There's also the hope that the changing weather will help slow the spread of virus, though that's far from certain.

而且，如果人们真的遵守呆在家里的命令，模型显示，到夏天，这种流行病可能会减弱。人们还希望不断变化的天气将有助于减缓病毒的传播，尽管这还远远不能确定。

But there's a problem. Even if things "get better all of a sudden," as the president suggested he hoped would happen, the virus will not have gone away.

但有个问题。即使事情“突然好转”，正如总统所说他希望的那样，病毒也不会消失。

"This virus is now in thousands of locations around the world," said Mark Denison, director of the division of infectious disease at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center. "And it's not finished with its human exploration."

范德比尔特大学医学中心传染病科主任马克·丹尼森说：“这种病毒现在分布在世界各地数千个地方。”它还没有完成人类的探索。”

Not that the virus is intentionally exploring, it's just doing what viruses do: infecting cells and making copies of itself. That doesn't happen when enough people are immune from infection, either because people have been exposed to the virus, and recovered, or because they've been vaccinated.

这并不是说病毒在故意探索，它只是在做病毒做的事情:感染细胞并复制自身。当足够多的人对感染有免疫力时，要么是因为人们接触了病毒，然后痊愈了，要么是因为他们接种了疫苗，否则这(足够多的人对感染有免疫力)是不会发生的。

People who don't have that immunity hasn't learned how to deal with the threat the virus represents.

没有免疫力的人还没有学会如何应对这种病毒带来的威胁。

"This virus has about 8 billion immune-naive people on the planet," said Denison. He worries that the virus could easily flare up again once people start going back to work and restarting their accustomed activities.

丹尼森说:“在地球上有大约80亿的人对这种病毒免疫缺乏。他担心，一旦人们开始重返工作岗位，重新开始他们常规的活动，病毒很容易再次爆发。

"This thing is scaring the hell out of me," said Denison.

“这件事把我吓坏了，”丹尼森说。

The best protection against the virus would be a vaccine. But that's probably at least a year away, even if the development programs now underway succeed.

预防这种病毒的最佳方法是疫苗。但即使现在正在进行的开发项目取得成功，那也可能至少还需要一年的时间。

Still, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said it may be possible to loosen societal restrictions sooner. "I don't think that you're going to have to say that the country cannot get back to a real degree of normalcy until you absolutely have a safe and effective vaccine," he said during the briefing.

不过，美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长安东尼·福奇表示，可能会更早放松社会限制。”他在简报会上说：“我不认为你非要说，除非你有绝对安全有效的疫苗，否则这个国家不可能恢复到真正的正常水平。”

A test that measure people's antibodies, and presumably their immunity, to the virus will be available widely by May, according to U.S. Public Health Service Admiral Brett Giroir.

据美国公共卫生服务部门的海军上将布雷特·吉罗瓦表示，一种检测人们的抗体，以及他们对这种病毒的免疫力的测试将在5月广泛使用。

That kind of test will be "so important," Fauci said, because then health officials will know how widely the virus has spread.

福奇说，这种检测将“非常重要”，因为这样一来，卫生官员就会知道这种病毒的传播范围有多广。

Broader testing capability, including antibody testing, would help the country reduce the kind of COVID-19 mitigation by social distancing that is in effect now. "We will have in place the capability of identifying [cases], contract tracing and isolating so it never gets out of hand," he said.

更广泛的测试能力，包括抗体测试，将有助于该国减少目前有效的社会距离缓解COVID-19带来的影响。他表示:“我们将具备识别(病例)、追踪感染和隔离的能力，这样就永远不会失控。”