大胆预测：南非世界杯巴西将夺冠

西班牙队

　　"Football fans may feel that the European champions and firm fans favorite Spain is under-rated by the UBS model," the bank's global equity research team said in its World Cup 2010 research paper on Wednesday."And our local UK readers may feel the same about England’s chances. However, both teams have tended to be underachievers when it comes to the World Cup finals themselves. In the last three events, Spain and England were ranked amongst the strongest teams but did not make it beyond the quarter-final stage。

　　上周三，瑞银的全球证券研究小组在一份针对2010年世界杯的调查报告中称，“球迷们可能觉得西班牙队被瑞银的这个预测模型低估了。英国的球迷也会觉得英格兰队被低估了。然而，这两支队伍往往到了决赛阶段就表现不佳。在头三个赛季里，西班牙和英格兰位列诸强，但却纷纷止步于四分之一决赛。”

　　"Brazil has the highest probability [of winning]."

　　“巴西最有可能赢。”

　　UBS used its "econometric toolbox and quantitative models" to forecast the winner based on factors including historic results and the teams' current "Elo ratings" – which take account of not only recent wins, losses and defeats, but the conditions under which those events occurred. Beating a powerhouse like Brazil or Spain would improve a team’s Elo ranking much more than beating a smaller side like Malta or Andorra。

　　瑞银根据各个球队的历史成绩和当前的积分排名情况(积分不单单考虑到球队近期的输赢，还考虑到了比赛中的具体情况。比如，击败一支强队(如巴西队、西班牙队)能够获得的积分要比击败一直弱队(如马耳他队、安道尔队)多很多。)，利用“经济计量工具箱和定量模型”来预测本届世界杯的冠军得主。The bank also believes World Cup hosts South Africa, despite their uninspiring recent form, are all but guaranteed a place in the second round, rating their chances at 78pc.Brazil are the second most likely to progress with 74pc. The country least likely to progress, with a probability of just 29pc, is Paraguay, UBS said。

　　瑞银还认为，本届世界杯东道主南非队虽然近来士气不旺，也有78%的几率能进入淘汰赛。巴西队的晋级率位居第二，为74%。晋级率最低的当属巴拉圭队，仅为29%。England was rated 63pc likely to escape the group stage and 21pc guaranteed to reach the semi-finals。