英格兰队
英格兰队的出线率为63%,进入半决赛的几率为21%。The UBS model was applauded in 2006 when it selected the winner, Italy. The bankers also correctly predicted 13 of the final 16, six of the final eight, and two of the semi-finalists。
在2006年世界杯的角逐中,瑞银利用预测模型预测意大利队最有可能夺冠,并最终言中,该预测模型也因此受到了人们的好评。此外,瑞银还曾成功预测了16强中的13支球队以及八强中的6支球队。
However, when using the model for the 2008 European Championship, the forecast winner did not make it to the second round. "The moral of the story is that one needs to be humble about the predictive power of one’s model," the Wealth Management team said。
不过,该模型在2008年欧锦赛中预测的夺冠热门球队却未能进入第二轮。瑞银财富管理团队对此表示,“对该模型的预测能力我们还是保守一点为妙。”UBS's predicted quarter-finalists
瑞银预测能够进入四分之一决赛的球队
Country Likelihood of winning World Cup 2010
Brazil 22pc
Germany 18pc
Italy 13pc
Netherlands 8pc
France 6pc
Argentina 5pc
Spain 4pc
England 4pc