Thwaites为什么是“世界末日冰川”
南极洲西部巨大的Thwaites冰川冰量惊人，如果它完全坍塌入海，全球海平面将升高 65 厘米。而且，令人担忧的是，最近的研究表明，随着冰川融化，其长期稳定性令人怀疑。
Adding 65cm to global sea levels would be coastline-changing amounts. For context, there's been around 20cm of sea-level rise since 1900, an amount that is already forcing coastal communities out of their homes and exacerbating environmental problems such as flooding, saltwater contamination, and habitat loss.
全球海平面增加65厘米将使海岸线向内陆进一步推进。就背景而言，自 1900 年以来，海平面上升了约 20 厘米，这已迫使沿海居民离开家园，并加剧了洪水、咸水污染和栖息地丧失等环境问题。
But the worry is that Thwaites, sometimes called the "doomsday glacier" because of its keystone role in the region, might not be the only glacier to go.Were it to empty into the ocean, it could trigger a regional chain reaction and drag other nearby glaciers in with it, which would mean several meters of sea-level rise.
但令人担忧的是，有时被称为“世界末日冰川”的 Thwaites 可能不是唯一会崩溃的冰川。如果它流入海洋，可能会引发区域性连锁反应并将附近的其他冰川卷入其中，这意味着海平面将上升数米。
That's because the glaciers in West Antarctica are thought to be vulnerable to a mechanism called Marine Ice Cliff Instability or MICI, where retreating ice exposes increasingly tall, unstable ice cliffs that collapse into the ocean.
这是因为南极洲西部的冰川被认为容易受到一种称为海洋冰崖不稳定性(MICI)的机制的影响，在这种机制中，退缩的冰层暴露出越来越高、不稳定的冰崖，这些冰崖坍塌到海洋中。
A sea level rise of several meters would inundate many of the world's major cities – including Shanghai, New York, Miami, Tokyo, and Mumbai.
海平面上升几米将淹没世界上许多主要城市，包括上海、纽约、迈阿密、东京和孟买。
It would also cover huge swathes of land in coastal regions and largely swallow up low-lying island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu, and the Maldives.
它还将覆盖沿海地区的大片土地，并在很大程度上吞没基里巴斯、图瓦卢和马尔代夫等低洼的岛国。
Thwaites is a frozen river of ice approximately the size of Great Britain. It already contributes around 4 percent of the global sea-level rise.和英国一样大
Thwaites是一条冰冻的河，面积大约相当于大不列颠。它已经贡献了全球海平面上升的4%。
Since 2000, the glacier has had a net loss of more than 1000 billion tons of ice and this has increased steadily over the last three decades. The speed of its flow has doubled in 30 years, meaning twice as much ice is being spewed into the ocean as in the 1990s.
自2000年以来，该冰川已经净损失了超过1万吨的冰，而且在过去30年里，这一数字还在稳步增加。它的流速在30年内翻了一番，这意味着流入海洋的冰量是20世纪90年代的两倍。
Thwaites glacier, the widest in the world at 80 miles wide, is held back by a floating platform of ice called an ice shelf, which restrains the glacier and makes it flow less quickly.
Thwaites是世界上最宽的冰川，宽80英里。它被一个叫做冰架的漂浮冰平台挡住，这个平台限制了冰川，使其流动速度变慢。
But scientists have just confirmed that this ice shelf is becoming rapidly destabilized. The eastern ice shelf now has cracks crisscrossing its surface and could collapse within ten years, according to Erin Pettit, a glaciologist at Oregon State University.
但科学家刚刚证实，这个冰架正在迅速变得不稳定。据俄勒冈州立大学(Oregon State University)的冰川学家艾琳·佩蒂特(Erin Pettit)说，东部冰架的表面现在有纵横交错的裂缝，可能在十年内坍塌。
This work supports research published in 2020 which also noted the development of cracks and crevasses on the Thwaites ice shelf. These indicate that it is being structurally weakened.
这项工作支持 2020 年的一项研究，后者还指出 Thwaites 冰架上裂缝和裂缝的发展趋势，表明它的结构正被削弱。
This damage can have a reinforcing feedback effect because cracking and fracturing can promote further weakening, priming the ice shelf for disintegration.
这种破坏可以产生强化反馈效应，因为开裂和破裂导致进一步削弱，为冰架解体埋下伏笔。
If Thwaites' ice shelf did collapse, it would spell the beginning of the end for the glacier. Without its ice shelf, Thwaites glacier would discharge all its ice into the ocean over the following decades to centuries.
如果冰架真的崩塌，那将意味着冰川终结的开始。在没有冰架的情况下，冰川在接下来的几十年到几个世纪里会将所有的冰排到海洋中。
However, scientists are still getting to grips with MICI and questions remain about the future of West Antarctic glaciers. While the collapse of Thwaites certainly could trigger a wholesale collapse event, not everyone believes this will happen.
然而，科学家们仍未完全弄清MICI。虽然 Thwaites 的崩溃肯定会引发大规模的连锁反应，但并不是每个人都相信 Thwaites会彻底解体。
Other work suggests that the destabilization of the Thwaites ice shelf and glacier may not lead to the kind of catastrophic outcomes that some fear. Sea ice and chunks of ice that break away from the collapsing ice shelf and glacier might have a similar restraining effect to the intact ice shelf, nipping the chain reaction in the bud and preventing the sustained collapse of the entire West Antarctic ice sheet.
其他工作表明，冰架和冰川的不稳定可能不会导致某些人担心的灾难性后果。从崩塌的冰架和冰川上脱离的海冰和冰块可能对完整的冰架具有类似的抑制作用，将连锁反应扼杀在萌芽状态，防止整个南极西部冰盖持续崩塌。
But while uncertainty remains about exactly what will happen in West Antarctica, one thing is for sure – the retreating Thwaites glacier will continue to add to global sea levels for many years to come.
但是，虽然南极洲西部究竟会发生什么仍然不确定，但有一件事是肯定的——退缩的Thwaites冰川将在未来许多年持续升高全球海平面。
