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《考研英语阅读理解100篇 高分版》 Unit 5 - TEXT THREE

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2019年01月31日

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When there is blood in the water, it is only natural that dorsal fins swirl around excitedly. Now that America's housing market is ailing, predators have their sights on the country's credit-card market. Analysts at Goldman Sachs reckon that credit-card losses could reach $99 billion if contagion spreads from subprime mortgages to other forms of consumer credit. Signs of strain are clearly visible. There are rises in both the charge-off and delinquency rates, which measure the share of balances that are uncollectable or more than 30 days late respectively. HSBC announced last month that it had taken a $1.4 billion charge in its American consumer-finance business, partly because of weakness among card borrowers.
It is too early to panic, though. Charge-offs and delinquencies are still low. According to Moody's, a rating agency, the third-quarter delinquency rate of 3.89% was almost a full percentage point below the historical average. The deterioration in rates can be partly explained by technical factors. A change in America's personal-bankruptcy laws in 2005 led to an abrupt fall in bankruptcy filings, which in turn account for a big chunk of credit-card losses; the number of filings (and thus charge-off rates) would be rising again, whether or not overall conditions for borrowers were getting worse.
The industry also reports solid payment rates, which show how much of their debt consumers pay off each month. And confidence in credit-card asset-backed securities is pretty firm despite paralysis in other corners of structured finance. Dennis Moroney of TowerGroup, a research firm, predicts that issuance volumes for 2007 will end up being 25% higher than last year.
Direct channels of infection between the subprime-mortgage crisis and the credit-card market certainly exist: consumers are likelier to load up on credit-card debt now that home-equity loans are drying up. But card issuers look at cash flow rather than asset values, so falling house prices do not necessarily trigger a change in borrowers' creditworthiness. They may even work to issuers' advantage. The incentives for consumers to keep paying the mortgage decrease if properties are worth less than the value of the loan; card debt rises higher up the list of repayment priorities as a result.
Card issuers are also able to respond much more swiftly and flexibly to stormier conditions than mortgage lenders are, by changing interest rates or altering credit limits. That should in theory reduce the risk of a rapid repricing of assets. “We are not going to wake up one day and totally revalue the loans,” says Gary Perlin, Capital One's chief financial officer.
If a sudden subprime-style meltdown in the credit-card market is improbable, the risks of a sustained downturn are much more real. If lower house prices and a contraction in credit push America into recession, the industry will undoubtedly face a grimmer future. Keep watching for those dorsal fins.
1. The author makes mention of dorsal fins which are irrelevant to the topic in order to _____.
[A] make people alert to the potential danger
[B] attract the readers' attention by presenting an interesting phenomenon
[C] make people realize the graveness of the issue by showing a similar case
[D] make the passage more vivid by imparting new knowledge to readers
2. Rises in the charge-off and delinquency rate indicate _____.
[A] the deterioration of the subprime mortgage
[B] the inadequate ability of card borrowers
[C] the influence of the technical factors
[D] the change in relevant laws
3. According to the second paragraph, the number of bankruptcy filings would be rising again because _____.
[A] there is a change in America's personal-bankruptcy laws
[B] the charge-offs and delinquencies are still low
[C] the influence of the change in the personal-bankruptcy laws has been digested
[D] the overall conditions for borrowers are getting worse
4. The subprime-mortgage crisis influences the credit-card market in that _____.
[A] the fall of asset values affects the card borrowers' creditworthiness
[B] the decrease in the mortgage payment leads to the rises of the card debt
[C] the drying up of the home-equity loans spur consumers' incentives to repay the card debt
[D] the falling house prices make the card debt rising higher
5. According to the author, the credit-card market will more likely be threatened by _____.
[A] a gradual downward tendency
[B] a rapid collapse
[C] a sustained trend of lowering prices
[D] the accumulation of economic recession

1. The author makes mention of dorsal fins which are irrelevant to the topic in order to _____.
[A] make people alert to the potential danger
[B] attract the readers' attention by presenting an interesting phenomenon
[C] make people realize the graveness of the issue by showing a similar case
[D] make the passage more vivid by imparting new knowledge to readers
1. 背鳍与本文主题无关,作者提到背鳍是为了 _____。
[A] 提醒人们注意潜在的危险
[B] 通过描述一个有趣的现象,来吸引读者的眼球
[C] 通过一个类似的案例,让人们意识到事情的严重性
[D] 通过向读者传授新的知识,来使得文章更生动
答案:A 难度系数:☆☆☆
分析:推理题。文章在首尾都提到了背鳍,此处背鳍指代鲨鱼。开头提到,一旦水中有血,就会有背鳍兴奋地游来游去,接着就提到美国房地产业衰退后,投机者将目光转向信用卡市场。末尾又提到,要当心背鳍。由此可以看出,作者提到背鳍是一种隐喻,意味着危险,因此选项A 比较符合题意。
2. Rises in the charge-off and delinquency rate indicate _____.
[A] the deterioration of the subprime mortgage
[B] the inadequate ability of card borrowers
[C] the influence of the technical factors
[D] the change in relevant laws
2. 损耗率和逾期债款率的升高意味着 _____。
[A] 次级抵押贷款恶化
[B] 信用卡借贷人的还贷能力较弱
[C] 技术因素的影响
[D] 相关法律的变化
答案:B 难度系数:☆☆
分析:推理题。文章在第一段提到,信用卡市场的疲软迹象已经出现,接着就提到这两个概念,即损耗率和逾期债款率分别代表无法收回来的收支差额和逾期30天以上未支付的份额,接着又举例说,汇丰银行的14亿美元费用部分是因为信用卡借款人偿还能力较弱。因此,这两项指标升高表明信用卡市场出现了问题。A不符合题意;B是信用卡市场的问题;C和D在第二段提到,是引起这两项指标升高的部分原因所在。因此,答案为B。
3. According to the second paragraph, the number of bankruptcy filings would be rising again because _____.
[A] there is a change in America's personal-bankruptcy laws
[B] the charge-offs and delinquencies are still low
[C] the influence of the change in the personal-bankruptcy laws has been digested
[D] the overall conditions for borrowers are getting worse
3. 根据第二段内容,破产申请的数量将再次增多是因为_____。
[A] 美国个人破产法有了一定变化
[B] 损耗率和逾期债款率仍然很低
[C] 个人破产法的变化带来的影响已经被消化
[D] 贷款人的总体状况越来越差
答案:C 难度系数:☆☆☆
分析:推理题。文章第二段末尾提到,不管贷款人整体的情况是否变坏,破产申请的数量都会再次增多。前面又提到,是因为2005年美国个人破产法有了一定变化,破产申请的数量才急剧降低,而后引发了信用卡市场的一些问题。因此可以推断,这项法律实行一段时间后,大家已经消化了这个变化,趋势又会恢复正常。答案C最为贴切。
4. The subprime-mortgage crisis influences the credit-card market in that _____.
[A] the fall of asset values affects the card borrowers' creditworthiness
[B] the decrease in the mortgage payment leads to the rises of the card debt
[C] the drying up of the home-equity loans spur consumers' incentives to repay the card debt
[D] the falling house prices make the card debt rising higher
4. 次级抵押贷款危机影响信用卡市场的原因在于_____。
[A] 资产价值的降低影响了信用卡借款人的信用度
[B] 抵押支付的减少导致了信用卡贷款的增加
[C] 家庭资产贷款的衰竭激发了消费者偿还信用卡贷款的积极性
[C] 房屋价格的下降使得信用卡贷款增加
答案:C 难度系数:☆☆☆
分析:细节题。文章第四段提到,次级抵押贷款危机和信用卡市场之间有相互影响的直接通道,因为家庭资产贷款衰竭,借款人就更愿意把信用卡的贷款偿还清;而且因为房屋的价格比贷款还低,大家就不愿意偿还房屋抵押贷款,因此信用卡贷款就会成为最先需要偿还的款项。选项中的C符合这种推理,为正确答案。
5. According to the author, the credit-card market will more likely be threatened by _____.
[A] a gradual downward tendency
[B] a rapid collapse
[C] a sustained trend of lowering prices
[D] the accumulation of economic recession
5. 根据作者的观点,信用卡市场更可能受到 _____ 的威胁。
[A] 缓慢的衰退趋势
[B] 快速的崩溃
[C] 价格持续走低
[D] 日趋严重的经济衰退
答案:A 难度系数:☆☆☆
分析:细节题。文章最后一段指出,突然的次级抵押贷款式的垮台可能不会出现在信用卡市场中,而更容易出现的是一种持续不断的低迷。因此,信用卡市场更可能受到这种缓慢的低迷趋势的影响。答案A最为符合题意。

如果水中有血的话,那么很自然的,就会有背鳍兴奋地在周围游来游去。现在美国的房产市场境况不佳,投机者就把目光转向了美国的信用卡系统。Goldman Sachs的分析师们认为,如果这种趋势从次级抵押扩散到其他形式的消费者信用的话,那么信用卡损失可能要达到990亿美元。目前这种趋紧的迹象已经显现。损耗率和逾期债款率都有所上升,这两个数据分别代表无法回收以及逾期超过30天的收支差额。汇丰银行上个月宣布,其在美国消费者金融行业的抵押款为14亿美元,部分原因就在于信用卡贷款人的弱势。
但现在恐慌还为时尚早。冲销和逾期债款率还不是很高。据评估机构Moody's估算,第三季度3.89%的逾期债款率比历史平均值还低将近一个百分点。比率变差部分是由于技术原因。2005年,美国个人破产法中的一个变动使得破产登记急速下降,而后引起了信用卡的大规模亏损。不管贷款人的整体状况是否变得更糟糕了,破产登记数量(紧跟其后的是冲销率)可以重新上升。
该行业还报告了真正的支付率,即表示有多少贷款消费者每个月偿还贷款。尽管在其他结构性金融部分出现了瘫痪,但是人们对信用卡负债支持的有价证券还是充满信心。研究机构TowerGroup的工作人员Dennis Moroney预计,2007年的发行数量最终将比去年高出25%。
次级抵押危机和信用卡市场之间存在相互影响的直接渠道,既然家庭资产贷款就要衰竭了,那么消费者就更倾向于充分使用信用卡的贷款。但是信用卡发行人关注的是现金流动而不是资产价值,因此房产价格的下降并不一定会带来贷款人信用额度的改变,甚至会有利于发行人。如果消费者的财产不及贷款金额,那么消费者支付抵押贷款的动力就会削弱,其结果就是,信用卡贷款就会成为最先需要偿还的款项。
信用卡发行人也可以在遇到更为严峻的情况时,通过改变利率或信用额度,从而比房屋抵押借款人做出更快、更灵活的反应。这在理论上可以降低资产快速重新估价的风险。“我们不希望有一天一睁开眼就得重新估算全部贷款,”Capital One的首席财政官Gary Perlin这样说。
如果在信用卡市场中那种突如其来的次级抵押式的彻底崩溃不可能发生的话,那么持续低迷的风险就是更为真实的。如果低房产价格和信贷紧缩将美国引向衰退,那么该行业无疑将会面临更惨淡的未来。时刻留心那些背鳍吧。
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