新款手机能否让三星恢复元气？

The fanfare around Samsung’s new flagship smartphone this week could not entirely mask anxieties among executives at the troubled South Korean electronics group still reeling from its disastrous previous phone launch and a corruption scandal.

本周，围绕三星(Samsung)最新旗舰智能手机的喧嚣，无法完全掩盖这家陷入困境的韩国电子集团高管们的忧虑，该集团仍在因上一次智能手机的灾难性发布以及一桩腐败丑闻受到冲击。

Samsung wants to draw a line under the crises of the recent past with the launch of the Galaxy S8, which was given the sort of big budget spectacle and cheering crowds that emphasises the importance of winning over the fickle followers of technology.

三星希望凭借Galaxy S8的推出结束最近的危机，这款手机拨备了巨额预算，并赢得了众多人士的喝彩，这些人特别强调需要赢得多变的科技迷的青睐。

But for Samsung, there was a wider job to be done in helping to reset its corporate image. There is more than just phone sales at stake for Samsung after the company suffered more than $5.3bn of losses from the safety debacle of the fire-prone Galaxy Note 7 smartphone last year.

然而对于三星而言，在帮助重塑公司形象方面有着更多的工作要做。在三星去年因Galaxy Note 7容易自燃导致的安全危机遭受逾53亿美元损失以后，目前处于危险境地的不仅仅是手机销售。

“We have thought of so many ‘what ifs’ . . . as this product is crucial to regain customer trust,” says Lee Young-hee, Samsung’s executive vice-president in charge of global marketing.

三星负责全球营销的执行副总裁李永熙(Lee Young-hee)表示：“我们考虑过很多的‘假设’……因为这款产品对于恢复客户信任至关重要。”

“In the end, we must not only win back the customers’ trust, but also the high expectations that they have always held for Samsung.”

“最后，我们不仅必须赢回消费者的信任，而且还要赢得他们一直以来对三星寄予的高度期望。”

The Note 7 fiasco was blamed on faulty battery design and manufacturing, but Samsung has played it safe by not increasing the S8 battery capacity despite the larger sized phones.

三星Note 7的惨败归咎于存在缺陷的电池设计和生产，因此三星采取了稳妥谨慎的策略，尽管三星S8机身较大，但没有提高电池容量。

The initial buzz around the S8 was positive, with analysts applauding its design improvements such as the “infinity display” wraparound screen and refinements to several key features, as well as the introduction of a new voice assistant to rival Apple’s Siri.

最初围绕三星S8的喧嚣是正面的，分析师称赞了这款手机的设计改进，例如“无限显示”的无边框屏幕和几个关键功能的改进，以及引入新的语音助理挑战苹果(Apple)的Siri。

IHS Markit forecasts Samsung will ship 331m smartphones in 2017, almost 6.8 per cent higher than 2016. “Assuming the S8 has no significant hardware issues,” it says pointedly.

IHS Markit预测，2017年，三星智能手机的出货量将达到3.31亿部，几乎比2016年高出6.8%。IHS Markit有针对性地指出：“假设S8没有出现严重的硬件问题。”

“The success of the S8 is critical for Samsung to help get it out of that complete mess that it was in last year with the Note 7,” says Bryan Ma, an analyst at IDC.

IDC分析师马伯远(Bryan Ma)表示：“S8的成功对于帮助三星走出Note 7去年所带来的一团糟状况至关重要。”

“And the good thing is that they really did a good job with the S8. Barring any catastrophic battery issues happening again, this should help get Samsung back on its feet again this year.”

“好在他们在S8方面确实做的不错。如果不再发生灾难性的电池问题，它应会帮助三星在今年恢复元气。”

The Note 7 trouble cost Samsung its global leadership of the smartphone market. The company accounted for 17.8 per cent of global smartphone sales in the last quarter of 2016, slightly less than Apple, according to Gartner.

三星Note 7危机让该公司失去了智能手机市场的全球领军地位：根据市场研究机构高德纳(Gartner)的数据，2016年最后一个季度，三星占全球智能手机销量的17.8%，略低于苹果。

But the reputational damage is not seen to be permanent by analysts. Daniel Kim, an analyst at Macquarie, says the Note 7 safety issue should not discourage consumers from buying the new phones — but he also does not expect the S8 phones to outsell their predecessors. The premium smartphone market is crowded with similar products, and the replacement cycle is getting longer as customers no longer feel they have to upgrade as frequently.

但分析人士认为，声誉损害不是永久性的。麦格理(Macquarie)分析师丹尼尔•金(Daniel Kim)表示，三星Note 7的安全问题应该不会阻止消费者购买新手机，但他不认为，S8的销量将超过之前的机型。高端智能手机市场充斥着类似机型，手机更新周期正变长，因为消费者不再认为他们必须频繁更换手机。

But smartphone sales are no longer the main metric that investors are following, analysts say, with more focus now on the company’s components-driven recovery. Memory chips and advanced flat panel displays boast wider margins on higher prices. Smartphones now account for just a quarter of Samsung’s earnings, down from about two-thirds in 2013.

但分析人士表示，智能手机销售不再是投资者关注的主要指标，他们将更多的注意力放在三星由零配件驱动的复苏方面。由于价格上涨，内存芯片和高端平板显示器的利润率上升。智能手机现在仅占三星利润的四分之一，低于2013年的约三分之二。

Samsung shares hit record highs recently after analysts said that its first-quarter operating profit was expected to jump 30 per cent on robust sales of microchips and OLED panels.

三星股价最近创下纪录高位，此前分析人士表示，在微芯片和OLED面板强劲销售的帮助下，预计该公司今年第一季度营业利润将大增30%。

Samsung’s share price closed up 0.5 per cent yesterday, gaining 16 per cent year to date.

三星股价周四收盘上涨0.5%，今年迄今已累计上涨16%。

“A new smartphone launch is not as strategically important as it used to be as smartphones are no longer Samsung’s main profit generator,” says Kim Young-woo, an analyst at SK Securities.

SK证券(SK Securities)分析师金永佑(Kim Young-woo)表示：“新款智能手机发布的战略重要性不如以前，因为智能手机不再是三星的主要利润创造者。”

“If the new phones sell well, it could be another catalyst, but not a critical determinant for its share prices.”

“如果新款手机畅销，这可能是另外一个利好，但并非股价的关键决定因素。”

Concerns over the company’s longer-term growth remain. The S8 launch reminded investors of Samsung’s inherent weakness in software and services, according to analysts, even if the company finally joined the race to bring voice-controlled intelligence to smartphones in a new service called Bixby.

有关该公司长期增长的担忧仍然存在。分析师表示，S8的推出让投资者想起了三星在软件和服务方面的固有弱点，即便三星最终加入了围绕着语音控制智能的角逐：三星如今以一款名为Bixby的新服务，把语音控制智能带入了智能手机。

More worrying for investors is the absence of the company’s de facto leader Lee Jae-yong as he stands trial on charges of bribery and embezzlement in connection with a political corruption scandal. Although the company’s daily operations would not be affected by the leadership vacuum, its strategic decision-making involving big acquisitions or corporate governance reforms could be undermined, analysts say.

投资者们更担心的是，该公司实际领导者李在镕(Lee Jae-yong)，因与一宗政治腐败丑闻有关的行贿和挪用公款指控受审而缺席公司管理。分析师表示，尽管三星的日常运营不受领导者缺席的影响，但涉及重大收购或公司治理改革的战略决策可能会受到削弱。

But the company’s share price suggest that investors are happy for now to focus on the success in the components market above longer-term management concerns.

但该公司的股价表明，相比长期管理方面的担忧，投资者眼下更乐于关注三星在配件市场的成功。

“It is not a politically right time to pursue any structural changes,” says Mr Kim at SK Securities, forecasting a Won50tn ($44bn) operating profit this year, compared with Won29tn last year.

“就政治环境而言，眼下不是追求结构性改革的好时机，”SK证券的金永佑表示，他预测今年的营业利润为50万亿韩元(合440亿美元)，而去年为29万亿韩元。

“Many investors have given up hopes for governance reform in the near future but there are still high expectations for bigger shareholder returns, because the company’s earnings are so good.”

“很多投资者对三星近期进行治理改革不抱希望，但对股东回报提高仍然抱有较高期望，因为该公司的盈利状况非常好。”

And, as long as there is no repeat of the fire-starting Note 7, Samsung can expect a boost from the latest phone launch.

同时，只要不再出现Note 7爆炸那样的事件，三星完全可以期望新推出的手机带来业绩提升。

“This device is the first real test that Samsung has had since the Note 7 disaster, which is why the S8 needs to sell very well, confounding the big fall in trust that Samsung has suffered over the last six months,” says Richard Windsor, an analyst at Edison, a research group.

“该设备是自从Note 7灾难以来三星面临的首次真正考验，这正是S8必须卖得非常好的原因，三星必须用出色的销售弥补三星在过去6个月遭受的信任流失，”研究公司Edison的分析师理查德•温莎(Richard Windsor)表示。

“Samsung has produced the device that it needs to cement its recovery but now it comes down to consumers.”

温莎说：“三星生产出了巩固复苏所需要的手机，但眼下这取决于消费者。”