世界需要严肃对待朝鲜威胁

Soon after Donald Trump’s inauguration, a joke made the rounds on Twitter, picturing a laughing, spiky-haired Kim Jong Un.

唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)就职不久后，一张搞笑图片在Twitter上被网友们热转，图片中是头发后梳直立、开怀大笑的金正恩(Kim Jong Un)。

“I no longer craziest leader,” screamed the headline.

图片配的文字是：“我不再是最神经病的领导人了”。

It was brilliantly funny — for a moment. Since then, the North Korean dictator has proceeded to show that he remains unchallenged for the title. He has taunted his neighbours with new ballistic missile tests and staged an extraordinary plot to assassinate his half-brother with a nerve gas agent.

这张图可以说是爆笑了——可惜笑感只维持了一会儿。从那以后，这位朝鲜独裁者开始表明，他仍是这个封号无可争辩的得主。他用新的弹道导弹试验向他的邻居表示蔑视，还筹划了一场用神经毒剂暗杀他同父异母兄长的惊天阴谋。

I thought about the joke the other day while listening to a diplomat describe Mr Trump’s unpredictability as an asset in dealing with North Korea. The argument went like this: Mr Kim might be deterred if he believed that the US president was as unhinged as he was. Peace on the Korean peninsula, in other words, may hinge on whether he buys into the Twitter meme. Not exactly reassuring.

有一天我听到一名外交官说，特朗普的不可预测性对他与朝鲜打交道是一个有利条件，在那时，我想起了上面那个笑话。这种观点的逻辑是：如果金正恩相信美国总统像他一样神经病，那么这位朝鲜独裁者或许不敢轻举妄动。换句话说，朝鲜半岛的和平，可能取决于金正恩对Twitter上那张走红图片是否买账。听起来并不怎么令人宽慰。

That such a prospect is a topic of discussion, though, underscores an uncomfortable truth: that no one has a clue how to handle Mr Kim or contain his escalating belligerence. Is he really crazy or does he just like to behave as if he is? Is he growing increasingly confident or desperately insecure?

不过这样一个设想成为人们讨论的话题，本身就明确表明了一个令人不快的事实：没人知道如何降住金正恩，或阻止他日益升级的好战行径。他是真的疯了，还是只是乐意表现出这个样子?他是在变得越来越自信，还是极度缺乏安全感?

Yet the clock is ticking. Singularly focused on his nuclear programme, no matter the consequences for his own population, Mr Kim’s regime will, in a matter of years, have the capability to strike US territory with nuclear weapons. Think of any kind of pressure, however, and it has been tried already, with limited impact if any at all. That includes sanctions. It also includes diplomacy. When the north was ruled by Mr Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, the “Six Party Talks” between North Korea, the US, China, Russia, South Korea and Japan that began in 2003 produced an agreement to close nuclear facilities, but were dead two years later when Pyongyang walked out. Meanwhile, military action is not a credible threat, unless one is willing to risk a retaliation that blows up South Korea. Cyber warfare to sabotage missile test launches has been attempted too, but it is not clear whether it has been effective.

可时间不等人。金正恩政权心无旁骛地主抓他的核计划，而不管这会对他的人民造成什么后果，照这样下去，数年内，金正恩政权就将有能力用核武器打击美国领土。然而，任何可以想到的施压办法都已经用过了，无一不是收效甚微、甚至根本无效。其中包括制裁，还包括外交。在金正恩的父亲金正日(Kim Jong-il)统治朝鲜时，朝鲜、美国、中国、俄罗斯、韩国和日本于2003年开始的“六方会谈”，曾达成了关闭朝鲜核设施的协议，但两年后随着平壤退出谈判，该协议也作废。此外，军事行动也无法形成有效威胁，除非人们愿意承担朝鲜发起报复、将韩国炸飞的风险。用网络战破坏导弹试射这一招也用过，但目前尚不清楚是否有效。

Throwing the ball into China’s court has been convenient and, to a certain extent, rational since Mr Kim’s regime is dependent on Chinese support. But China is in a bind, and it cannot handle North Korea on its own. It has tried to contain Pyongyang but does not seem able to control it. It is not in a position to provide the regime with the security guarantees it craves and is getting increasingly agitated about the expanding US military role in its neighbourhood, in particular the deployment of the Thaad anti-ballistic missile defence system in South Korea. No wonder the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, warned last week that the US and North Korea were “like two accelerating trains coming towards each other with neither side willing to give way”.

把球踢给中国一向是个方便的做法，而且在一定程度上是合理的，因为金正恩政权依赖中国的支持。但中国处于困窘境地，而且它无法凭一己之力降住朝鲜。中国已试图阻止平壤，但似乎无法控制对方。中国不能为金正恩政权提供它所渴望的安全保障，而且对于美国扩大对中国周边地区的军事渗透，尤其是在韩国部署“萨德”(Thaad)反弹道导弹防御系统，中方越来越焦虑不安。无怪乎中国外长王毅上星期警告说，美国和朝鲜“就像两组不断加速的列车，互不相让”。

Mr Trump may be too busy fighting fictional wars at home to focus on such messy trouble so far away. At some point soon, though, he will no longer have a choice. His predecessor, Barack Obama, warned him as much during the transition. His lieutenants are now reviewing policy on North Korea, and US experts have produced reams of copy about how to deal with the North Korean supreme leader.

特朗普可能忙于在国内打一场场虚构的战争，无暇顾及远方这堆乱摊子。但过不了多久，他将别无选择。他的前任巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)在交接时期曾警告过他。他麾下大将们现在正在审查朝鲜政策，美国专家们也就如何与朝鲜最高领导人打交道炮制出大量篇章。

Some suggest an ugly, but perhaps necessary compromise: to avoid a war, the world must accept Mr Kim, giving him assurances that the US doesn’t seek to topple him. If he is more secure at home, he might miraculously turn into a semi-responsible member of the international community. Others dismiss this as appeasement and call for harsher sanctions against North Korea and China. And still others say go to war and threaten to nuke the north if it retaliates against the south.

一些人提出了一个丑陋但也许是必要的妥协：为了避免战争，这个世界必须接受金正恩，向他保证美国不会寻求推翻他。如果他在国内感到更安全，他或许会奇迹般地变成国际社会还算负责任的成员。其他人则认为这是绥靖，并呼吁对朝鲜和中国进行更严厉的制裁。还有人说就此开战，并威胁如果朝鲜敢报复韩国，就对朝鲜发动核武攻击。

Given the high stakes, and the risk that Mr Kim is as unstable as his image suggests, it is clearly time for serious diplomacy, backed up with the threat of even tougher sanctions. Talks may never achieve a complete nuclear disarmament but even a freeze on the nuclear programme in the short term is worth a try. It may be difficult to imagine Mr Kim standing next to Mr Trump at the White House but it is not as wild a thought as the alternatives in this crisis.

考虑到事关重大，以及金正恩可能确实像他的图片所表现的那样不稳定，现在显然应该开始施展严肃外交，并辅以再次威胁实施更严厉制裁。谈判可能永远实现不了完全的核裁军，但哪怕能在短期内冻结核计划，也值得一试。人们或许很难想象金正恩在白宫站在特朗普身旁，但这个想法并不比解决这场危机的其他方案更疯狂。