FT社评：美韩须结成统一战线震慑朝鲜

The world has no choice but to live with a nuclear-armed North Korea. The US — by choice and default the crucial counterbalance to the rogue regime — cannot change this fact without taking catastrophic risks. That does not mean the US has no options.

这个世界别无选择，只能与拥有核武器的朝鲜共存。美国——不论自愿还是非自愿，它都是反制这个流氓政权的关键力量——也无法不承担灾难性的风险而改变这一事实。但这并不表示美国对此束手无策。

Its goals should be to maximise the deterrent forces acting on Kim Jong Un, the country’s pitiless dictator; make further development of his nuclear weapon programme as difficult as possible; and to keep alive the possibility, however faint, that in the future the hermit kingdom might accept limits on its nuclear ambitions in return for an end to its isolation.

美国的目标应该是：最大限度地威慑金正恩(Kim Jong Un)这个朝鲜冷酷的独裁者;尽可能加大他的核武计划进一步发展的难度;无论多么渺茫，也要保留这种可能性：将来这个隐士王国为了结束其受孤立的状态，会接受对其核野心的限制。

On Sunday North Korea conducted by far its largest underground nuclear weapon test, which followed the firing of a long-range ballistic missile near Japan. Since then, President Donald Trump and his advisers have let the possibility of pre-emptive military action hang in the air. Defence secretary James Mattis, for example, has stated that “any threat to the United States or its territory . . . will be met with a massive military response”. Whether “threat” in this context refers to an attack or something short of one is ambiguous. Presumably the ambiguity is intentional. But pre-emptive attack would probably end in a massive and unacceptable loss of life.

9月3日，朝鲜进行了规模远超以往的迄今最大的地下核试验，而且不久前才刚刚在日本附近发射了一枚远程弹道导弹。从那时起，对于对朝鲜采取“先发制人”军事行动的可能性，美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)及其顾问们就语焉不详。例如，美国国防部长詹姆斯•马蒂斯(James Mattis)曾发表声明称，“任何威胁到美国或其领地的行为……都将遭遇大规模的军事回应”。在这一语境中，“威胁”指的是一次攻击还是某种不构成攻击的行为，是模棱两可的。也许这种语焉不详是有意为之。但是先发制人的打击很可能会以巨大的、无法接受的伤亡告终。

North Korea has demonstrated that it will pursue intercontinental nuclear weapons without regard for international condemnation or threats. Rhetorical escalation only dilutes US credibility while elevating tensions.

朝鲜已经证明，它会不顾国际谴责或威胁继续发展洲际核武器。言辞上的升级只会降低美国的可信度，同时加剧紧张局势。

The US can, however, work to see that current sanctions regime is respected, including the mineral export bans unanimously approved by the UN Security Council last month. It can encourage China to limit its exports to North Korea, as well, particularly oil.

然而，美国可以努力确保当前对朝采取的制裁措施得到遵守，包括联合国安理会(UN Security Council)上月一致通过的禁止朝鲜出口矿物。美国还可以敦促中国限制其对朝鲜的物资出口，尤其是石油。

Again, there should be no illusions that Mr Kim will ever renounce his arsenal altogether in return for sanctions relief. He will have noticed the fate of his fellow despots Saddam Hussein and Muammer Gaddafi, who lacked nuclear weapons, and too much economic openness might by itself pose a threat to his regime. Limiting the regime’s access to hard currency will, however, make its nuclear programme harder to expand. And it is in the world’s interest that there are tough consequences for Mr Kim’s reckless behaviour.

不过，人们不应幻想为换取制裁的解除，金正恩会放弃他的一切武装部署。他应该已经看到没有核武器的另外两位暴君——萨达姆•侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)和穆阿迈尔•卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)——的命运，而且太多的经济开放也许本身就会威胁到他的政权。然而，限制该国获得硬通货，将令其核计划更难推进。让金正恩为他的肆意妄为承担严重后果，符合全世界的利益。

Should North Korea indicate, against all expectations, readiness to trade sanctions relief for verifiable limits on its nuclear programme, the US should be ready to talk, even if those limits fall short of total renunciation.

如果朝鲜出乎意料地表示，愿意为解除贸易制裁而接受对其核计划的可验证的限制，美国就应准备谈判，即使这些限制还达不到让朝鲜彻底放弃核武。

There is a crucial and at present unanswerable question about Mr Kim’s intentions. Is his commitment to a long-range nuclear arsenal purely a matter of self-preservation? Or does he hope to unify the Korean peninsula by force? If the former, the prospects for deterring him from using his weapons are better. If the latter, the situation will be much less stable, and it is this possibility for which the US and its allies must prepare.

对于金正恩的意图，有一个至关重要而目前尚无法作出解答的问题。他决心发展远程核武器纯粹是出于自卫考虑?还是希望通过武力统一朝鲜半岛?如果是前者，那阻止他动武的前景还比较乐观。如果是后者，局势将更不稳定，美国和其盟国必须对此种可能做好准备。

Mr Trump is failing to do so in the most fundamental way: by allowing a gap to open between the US and South Korea. After Sunday’s test, he did not speak to South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in for 36 hours, during which he accused the country of “appeasement” in a tweet. Mr Trump has also, astonishingly, chosen this moment to question the value of the US-South Korea free-trade agreement.

而特朗普在最根本上没做到这一点：他让美国与韩国的关系出现了裂痕。在周日朝鲜核试验后，特朗普36小时没有与韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)通话，其间他发推文谴责韩国“绥靖”。特朗普还令人惊讶地选择这样一个时机来质疑美韩自由贸易协定的价值。

If Mr Kim dreams of refighting the Korean war, any indication of weakness in the US-South Korea alliance will encourage him. Mr Trump must demonstrate to North Korea and the world that America will stand stoutly behind South Korea, come what may.

如果金正恩想要重新发动朝鲜战争，美韩同盟显现出的任何弱点都会令他感到鼓舞。特朗普必须向朝鲜和世界表明，无论发生什么，美国都将是韩国的坚实后盾。