德国政局动荡震动欧洲

When Angela Merkel hosted the G20 summit in Hamburg last July, she was the most experienced western leader in the room. The German chancellor took office in 2005 — when Emmanuel Macron was just a year out of college, and Donald Trump was still a reality TV star and real estate guy.

去年7月，当安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)在汉堡主持20国集团(G20)峰会时，她是场上最有经验的西方领导人。这位德国总理于2005年就职——当时埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)刚大学毕业1年，而唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)还只是一个真人秀明星和地产商。

The only G20 leader who has been in office longer than Ms Merkel is Vladimir Putin of Russia, and the two leaders’ records make an instructive contrast. Under President Putin, Russia has lost friends, was sucked into wars and been hit with economic sanctions. But, in the Merkel era, Germany has grown steadily in prosperity and political influence. On a range of crucial issues — Russia, refugees, the euro — Germany has become Europe’s “indispensable nation”, with decisions taken in the chancellery in Berlin critical to how events unfold.

G20领导人中唯一比默克尔在位更久的是俄罗斯的弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)，对比这两位领导人的所作所为能带来很多启发。在普京的领导下，俄罗斯失去了朋友、卷入了战争并受到经济制裁。但是，在默克尔执政时期，德国的经济繁荣度和政治影响力却一直在稳定提升。在一系列关键问题上——俄罗斯、难民、欧元——德国已经成为欧洲“不可或缺的国家”，柏林总理府做出的决策对事态如何发展发挥关键作用。

So the current political crisis in Germany has global implications. If, as now seems distinctly possible, the end of the Merkel era is within sight, Europe will be in a new and dangerous situation.

因此，当前德国的政治危机对全球都有影响。如果默克尔离任在即(这种可能性现在看上去明显存在)，欧洲将面临一个新的危险局面。

The EU-optimists in Brussels and Paris will hope that a new German leader might inject some dynamism into the European project, ditching the cautious, incremental approach that Ms Merkel has displayed over the euro.

布鲁塞尔和巴黎对欧盟(EU)事业感到乐观的人士眼下肯定希望，新一任德国领导人能为这项事业注入一些活力，抛弃默克尔在欧元区问题上谨慎、渐进的做法。

But, in fact, the opposite is more likely to happen. The current tenor of German politics suggests that a new chancellor in Berlin is far less likely than Ms Merkel to take bold risks for Europe. The spoilers in the current coalition negotiations are the Free Democrats, who are strongly opposed to visionary ideas for deeper European fiscal integration.

但事实上很可能事与愿违。当前德国政治的基调表明，如果柏林有了一位新总理，此人将比默克尔更不可能为欧洲一体化事业采取大胆、冒险的举措。目前破坏联合组阁谈判的是自由民主党人，他们强烈反对加深欧洲财政一体化的设想。

For that reason, the collapse of the coalition talks in Berlin is bad news for Mr Macron. In a recent speech on Europe at the Sorbonne, the French president laid out a series of ambitious ideas for the EU, including the creation of a European finance ministry, EU-wide taxes and a joint military force for overseas interventions. Yet for these ideas to have any chance of adoption, France needs a positive response from Germany. The failure to form a new German government means the response will now be indefinitely delayed, and will be more likely to be negative when it finally comes.

因此，对马克龙来说，柏林联合组阁谈判破裂是个坏消息。最近，这位法国总统在索邦大学(Sorbonne)发表演说，阐述了一系列关于欧盟事业雄心勃勃的想法，包括建立欧洲财政部、全欧盟统一的税制以及负责海外干预行动的联合军队。然而，想让这些想法有机会落实，法国需要得到德国的积极回应。未能组建新一届德国政府意味着目前来自德国的回应会无限期延迟，而最终迎来的回应也很可能是消极的。

Some conservatives hope that a post-Merkel Germany could be better for European unity when it comes to the sensitive issue of dealing with refugees. The chancellor was bitterly criticised in Hungary and Poland for unilaterally deciding to accept more than 1m would-be refugees from Syria and elsewhere, and then seeking a burden-sharing agreement with the rest of the EU.

一些保守派人士希望，在默克尔下台后，当涉及到难民的处理等敏感问题时，德国的立场能够更有利于欧洲一体化事业。默克尔曾在匈牙利和波兰饱受批评，因为她单方面决定接受来自叙利亚和其他地方的逾100万潜在难民，然后寻求欧盟其他成员国与其分担责任。

The current coalition talks have already demonstrated that Germany is moving towards a much more restrictive view of refugee rights — including setting an overall limit to the number of asylum-seekers the country will accept each year. But even if the next German government is closer to the EU mainstream on migration, that is unlikely to lead to EU unity.

目前的联合组阁谈判已经表明，德国的立场正急剧转向对难民权利施加限制——包括限制该国每年接收的寻求庇护者的总数。但即使下一届德国政府更贴近欧盟在移民问题上的主流立场，也不太可能带来欧洲的统一。

There are still many potential migrants who might attempt the journey to Europe. With a disproportionate number arriving in southern European countries such as Greece and Italy, there is a clear need for some sort of EU-wide response. If even Germany retreats into a nationalistic crouch, attempts to find a workable EU approach would collapse, and migration policy would become even more chaotic and divisive.

现在依然有很多潜在移民试图前往欧洲。由于抵达希腊和意大利等南欧国家的潜在移民数量不成比例地高，整个欧盟做出某种统一的反应显然是必要的。如果连德国都退回民族主义姿态，找到可行的欧盟统一移民对策的尝试将会失败，移民政策将变得更加混乱和分裂。

Ms Merkel’s response to the refugee crisis helped to turn her into a global symbol. During the US election, Mr Trump lambasted the German chancellor’s policies as “insane”, and regularly predicted a surge in terrorism across Europe. More broadly, after Brexit, the election of Mr Trump and the rise of quasi-authoritarian governments in Poland and Hungary, Ms Merkel was widely hailed as the most powerful defender of an international liberal order that was suddenly under unprecedented pressure.

默克尔对移民危机的反应帮助她成为了全球旗帜。在美国大选期间，特朗普抨击德国总理的政策“疯了”，并时常预测欧洲境内的恐怖主义活动将会激增。从更广的层面说，在英国退欧、特朗普当选，波兰和匈牙利的半威权政府崛起之后，默克尔被广泛誉为自由主义国际秩序最有力的捍卫者，这一秩序眼下正面临突如其来、空前巨大的压力。

No currently conceivable replacement for Ms Merkel is likely to embrace the populist agenda of Mr Trump, or the Euroscepticism of the Brexiters. But it is clear that a large part of the German chancellor’s current difficulties stem from the rise of the far-right and the far-left in Germany, who collectively achieved more than 20 per cent of the vote in September’s election. If the chancellor now loses office — or staggers on, in a hobbled state — her fate will be perceived across the world as a big setback for the liberal and internationalist ideas that she has championed.

目前，我们能够想到的可能替代默克尔的人选，都不太可能欢迎特朗普的民粹主义议程，或者英国退欧派人士的欧洲怀疑主义。但默克尔现在面临的困境显然有很大一部分源于德国极右和极左势力的崛起，代表这些势力的党派在今年9月的德国大选中总共获得超过20%的选票。如果默克尔下台——或者以“跛脚鸭”状态继续留任——她的命运将在全世界范围内被视为她所支持的自由主义和国际主义思想的巨大挫折。

The fact that Ms Merkel will end the year fighting for her political life will damp some of the optimism that has been building steadily among EU elites in the past year. The twin blows of Trump and Brexit meant that the EU began 2017 in a state of shock and fear. But Mr Macron’s victory, a modest revival of economic growth and the shambles of the Brexit process had restored the confidence of professional pro-Europeans.

默克尔将在为自己的政治生命而奋战中结束这一年，这个事实将为欧盟精英在过去一年来稳步滋生的乐观情绪泼一盆冷水。特朗普和英国退欧的双重打击让欧盟在震惊和恐惧之中踏入了2017年。但马克龙的胜选、经济增长的温和复苏以及英国退欧过程的一团糟局面，恢复了欧洲一体化事业的职业捍卫者们的信心。

Set against these positive trends, however, there have also been warning signs. These include separatism in Spain, populism in central Europe and continuing worries about the Italian banks. Amid all these problems, Ms Merkel’s Germany was the rock of political and economic stability on which the EU hoped to build. If even Germany no longer looks solid and predictable, the whole of the European project will be back in trouble.

然而，在这些积极的趋势下，还有一些值得警惕的信号。包括西班牙的分裂主义、中欧的民粹主义和意大利银行业持续引发的担忧。在问题重重的大环境下，默克尔领导的德国在政治和经济上都坚如磐石，欧盟希望以它为基础构建自己的事业。如果连德国看起来都不再坚定和可预测，整个欧洲一体化事业将重新陷入困境。