人生不设限·我的“风险管理可笑法则”

为了帮助你处理人生一定会遇到的风险，我总结出“力克的风险管理可笑法则”——那个，你知道的，读的时候“风险”自负。

To help you deal with the risks you'll face in your life, I've put together Nick's Ridiculous Rules for Managing Risk. Read them at your own . . . well, you know.

 

1.试水深

1. Test the waters.

非洲有句古老的谚语说，没有人会用两只脚去试河水的深度。无论你是想尝试一段新恋情、想搬去另一座城市、想找一份新工作，哪怕只是替自家客厅换上新的颜色，在大动作之前先来点小测试——在还没弄清楚你到底要跳进哪里之前，别急着一头栽进去。

An ancient African proverb says no one tests the depth of the river with both feet. If you are considering a new relationship, a move to another city, a new job, or even a new color for the living room, do a little test before making a big move. Don't rush in without a good sense of what you are getting into.

 

 

2.知道多少做多少

2. Go with what you know.

这不是说你永远不要尝试新事物、认识新的人，而是说你可以借此多做一些功课，来降低赌注的风险。一旦你认为自己已经掌握了某个机会的利弊得失等所有方面，就该带着自信展开行动。即使你无法知道所有的状况，也该知道自己到底不知道些什么——有时，这样也够了。

This doesn't mean you should never try new experiences or new people; it simply means that you can lower the odds by doing your homework. Once you think you have a handle on the upside, downside, and every aspect of an opportunity, you should have the confidence to make a move. Even if you don't know it all, you should know what you don't know—and sometimes that's good enough.

 

3.检查时间表

3. Check the timer.

有时候，等到合适的时间点才行动也可以降低风险，增加成功的可能性。你应该不会想在酷寒的严冬中开冰淇淋店吧?像我进入电影事业，第一个机会不适合我，但是几个月后，非常适合我的角色出现了，时机也对。有时候，多点耐心是值得的，给自己一点时间思考，别急着作决定。有什么事，睡觉前写下来，第二天早上醒来后再看一看。你会发现，经过一个晚上，事情看起来会很不一样，我就这样做过很多次。永远要仔细评估时机对不对，决定在一个困难的时间点采取行动之前，还是要想想是不是有其他更好的时机。

Often you can greatly improve the odds by waiting for the right time to make your move. You wouldn't want to start a new ice cream business in the dead of winter, would you? My first offer to enter the movie business just wasn't for me, but a few months later the role was perfect and the timing was right. Sometimes patience can pay off. Don't be afraid to sleep on it. Write it down before you go to bed, and then read it again in the morning. It's amazing how different it can appear when you let it sit overnight. I have done this many times. Always consider your timing and whether there might be a better time before you make a move on the steep edge of opportunity.

 

 

4.寻求第二意见

4. Get a second opinion.

有时我们会去尝试一件超过自己能力许多的事，那是因为我们相信一定要马上做这件事才行。当你发现自己急着进入一个诡谲刁钻的领域时，请往后退几步，去找你信任的朋友或人生导师，请他们帮你评估情势，因为你的感情已经超过理智，可能不适合单独作决定。在美国我会去找贝塔叔叔，在澳大利亚则是找爸爸。三个臭皮匠，胜过一个诸葛亮，当某件事的风险太高时，请不要执意做江湖独行侠。

Sometimes we take bigger chances than we should because we're so convinced that we absolutely must do a certain thing right now. If you find yourself rushing into tricky territory, take a couple steps back, call a friend or mentor you trust, and ask for help in assessing the situation, because your emotions may be outrunning your good sense. I go to my uncle Batta here and to my father in Australia. There is wisdom in a council of many. If the stakes are high, you don't have to be the Lone Ranger.

 

 

5.为看不见的后果作准备

5. Prepare for the unseen consequences.

我们的行动总是会有看不见的影响——我再重复一次，是总是——特别是那些超越极限的行动。我们无法预见所有后果，所以要尽可能周密地考虑到每个角度，然后为意想不到的状况作好准备。我在做经营计划时，会高估成本、低估利润，以防事情进展得不如预期。如果一切都进展得很顺利，资金有富余也没害处啊。

There are always, I repeat always, unseen consequences for our actions, especially those that push the envelope. You can never foresee all the repercussions, so you should do your best to consider every angle and then prepare yourself for the unexpected. When I do a business plan, I overestimate costs and underestimate my profit to create a buffer, just in case the business doesn't progress as well as I hope it will. If all goes well, it never hurts to have the extra money.