全球变暖4°C，地球会变成什么样子

全球变暖4°C，地球会变成什么样子

It’s hard to say what the exact effects of climate change will be by the end of the 21st century, but that hasn’t stopped people from theorizing. In this recent video from YouTuber, RealLifeLore, for example, we’re treated to a glimpse of what would happen to Earth if the average global temperature rose by 4 degrees Celsius by the year 2100.

很难说到21世纪末气候变化的确切影响会是什么，但这并没有阻止人们提出理论。例如，在youtube网站RealLifeLore最近发布的一段视频中，我们得以一窥如果2100年全球平均气温到上升4摄氏度，地球将会发生什么。

And the prophecy is (expectedly) terrible for many, while enormously beneficial for some. RealLifeLore, the YouTube channel dedicated to answering “questions that you’ve never asked,” recently posted the extremely speculative climate change video.

这个预言(预期)对很多人来说是可怕的，但对一些人来说是非常有益的。致力于回答“你从未问过的问题”的YouTube频道RealLifeLore最近发布了一段极其具有推测性的气候变化视频。

The video’s narrator, Joseph Pisenti—who also runs the channel—notes that the speculations made in the video are based on those outlined in the book, Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization.

该视频的解说员约瑟夫·皮森特同时也是该频道的负责人。他指出，视频中的推测是基于《连通图:绘制全球文明的未来》一书中的概述。

Connectography is a book on the “global network revolution” that may take place over the next 80 or so years, written by geopolitical advisor and international relations expert, Parag Khanna.

《连通图》是一本关于“全球网络革命”的书，这本书由地缘政治顾问和国际关系专家帕拉格·卡纳撰写，这场革命可能会在未来80年左右发生。

If you want to hear more about Khanna’s theories regarding how “the map of the world” is going to change by the year 2100, you can watch the author’s TED Talk.

如果你想了解更多关于卡纳关于“世界地图”到2100年将如何变化的理论，你可以去观看作者的TED演讲。

As far as the predictions in the video, they basically boil down to this: Everything’s going to become a desert. Except for narrow strips of land closer to the planet’s poles.

至于视频中的预测，基本上可以归结为:一切都将变成沙漠。除了靠近地球两极的狭长地带。

Which, according to the assumptions made in the video, could mean that Canada, Russia, the Nordic countries, and Greenland all become the 22nd century’s top superpowers. Although Alaska would apparently go a long way in helping the U.S. stay relevant.

根据视频中的假设，这可能意味着加拿大、俄罗斯、北欧国家和格陵兰岛都将成为22世纪的超级大国。尽管阿拉斯加显然会在帮助美国保持影响力方面发挥很大作用。

The video notes that with a 4°C rise in average global temperature, every continent would be home to a massive dessert, with Africa “effectively [becoming] an entire desert continent.”

视频指出，随着全球平均气温上升4°C，每个大陆都将成为一个巨大沙漠的家园，非洲“实际上变成了一个完整的沙漠大陆”。

The video also notes that unthinkable large migrations of people will need to take place in attempts to relocate to livable areas of the world.

该视频还指出，为了迁移到世界上适宜居住的地区，人们将需要进行难以想象的大规模迁移。

There are, of course, an endless number of questions the climate model elicits in regards to the inevitable geopolitical ramifications of global warming.

当然，对于全球变暖不可避免的地缘政治影响，气候模型引发了无数的问题。

For example, how countries would interact with each other as the world warms; The core assumption that Earth could warm by 4°C by 2100 may also be inaccurate. Especially taking into consideration the fact that new technologies may mitigate the effects of climate change catalyzed by humanity.

例如，随着世界变暖，各国将如何相互影响;关于地球到2100年将升温4摄氏度的核心假设可能也不准确。特别是考虑到新技术可能减轻由人类推动的气候变化的影响这一事实。